The movement towards self-rule in Iraq this year, as indicated by January's elections to a national assembly and the long-delayed but now-completed formation of a government, has not been accompanied by a reduction in the level of violence directed against the authorities and the US-led armed forces supporting them.
On the contrary, the resistance has strengthened and claimed larger numbers of casualties - at least 200 in the last week in an average of 50-60 insurgent attacks each day.
Why this should be so is increasingly preoccupying all concerned. During the past two months it was suggested that resistance had diminished and that Iraqi forces were becoming more capable of assuming sufficient control to allow foreign troops begin withdrawing. Events in the last few weeks have contradicted this optimistic scenario. While intelligence breakthroughs have led US troops to concentrate operations in north-western Iraq, close to Syria, they have encountered strong resistance, with reports indicating more co-operation between foreign fighters and former elements of the Baathist regime.
The continuing insurrection prevents the formation of an effective governing apparatus in many parts of Iraq, despite the agreement on filling the remaining positions in the transitional government announced last Sunday. Completion of the cabinet appointments is a substantial achievement, belying the scepticism generated by the long delay in doing so. There is an overall balance between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish ministers, and the most sensitive ministries such as defence and oil have now been allocated.
The more leeway this transitional government has in security affairs the more convincing it will be to ordinary Iraqis and the more legitimacy it will generate. That explains this week's determined efforts by US-led forces to break up the latest outbreak of resistance, with an escalating rate of casualties. If this succeeds the 275-strong transitional assembly will be better able to write an acceptable constitution this summer, which will eventually be out to a referendum.
The main uncertainty facing this political process concerns its status as a journey towards genuine Iraqi self-rule and political sovereignty. The transitional government is still widely perceived to be dependent on the United States for military and political support, all the more so as large US bases are built up in the country. Unless a firm timetable for withdrawing foreign troops is agreed, along with the constitution, resistance is set to continue and widespread legitimacy to elude Iraq's new leaders.