As the world evaluates President Bush’s stark warning to Iraq in his State of the Union address there was constructive interest in his decision to make US intelligence evidence available to the United Nations.
He says Saddam Hussein is still pursuing illegal weapons programmes, hiding them from UN inspectors and aiding and protecting the al-Qaeda organisation. Such evidence is essential if the US is to make a credible case for an attack on Iraq and to convince the UN Security Council that it should be mandated. Without that legal backing, US action against Iraq would be unacceptable. Governments throughout the world, including our own on the use of Shannon, would then face difficult decisions over requests for aid in such a US endeavour.
Mr Bush insists that his government has detailed intelligence estimates that Saddam Hussein has materials to produce 500 tonnes of sarin, mustard and VX nerve agent capable of killing untold thousands. The same applies to 30,000 munitions capable of delivering them. He says that the US knows from three Iraqi defectors that Iraq has several mobile biological weapons laboratories. US intelligence sources say thousands of Iraqi security personnel hide documents, sanitise inspection sites and masquerade as scientists. Mr Bush says intelligence sources, secret communications and statements from people now in custody "reveal that Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al-Qaeda".
These are profoundly serious charges in the con-text of the UN arms inspection process. It is high time they were put in to the public domain and made available to the Security Council so that they can be verified by the arms inspectors, who are the legitimate people to evaluate them. They, in turn, must have sufficient time and resources to do so.
Mr Bush went on to say :"We will consult, but let there be no misunderstanding: If Saddam Hussein does not fully disarm, for the safety of our people, and for the peace of the world, we will lead a coalition to disarm him." He based this threat of action on another proposition – that "the course of this nation does not depend on the decisions of others." This is unacceptable because the US is legally and politically interdependent with all the other nations in the UN concerning Iraq.
It will have to convince the Security Council to mandate military action if it is to be taken. The belated decision to make this intelligence information available is good, but the evidence supplied must be independently validated. Even if it is shown to be largely correct it does not follow that military action is the only appropriate UN response.
The Government stated yesterday that if the US takes its own action against Iraq permission on the use of Shannon would be reviewed by the Government and referred to the Dáil. This is a welcome acknowledgement of Ireland’s commitment to the UN and, domestically, a policy of military neutrality.