Separate growth from oil production or face permanent recession, warns energy expert Lawrence Staudt.
An important debate, long overdue and partially inspired by events in the Middle East, is now arising about Ireland's energy supply security. At some point within the next two decades world oil production will reach its peak and begin to decline, with obvious implications for the world's oil-fuelled economy.
According to the Society of Danish Engineers: "The trouble is that no realistic technological, economic and political strategies for the warding off of the impacts of a decline in conventional oil supply are in sight."
There are two main concerns surrounding the use of fossil fuels, supply security and climate change. Climate change is very important, but in my opinion supply security is now at least as pressing an issue.
In 1970 oil production in the continental US peaked. The peak indicated that about half of the oil in the US was consumed. Since then, in spite of advances in exploration and extraction technology, US oil production has declined. This same geological reality will apply shortly on a world level. The peak of conventional oil production is estimated by some to be right now and by others to be as late as 2025.
Although the world still has an abundance of oil, the timing of the oil peak is critical. Oil is the engine of economic growth. It takes more oil to produce more goods and services. Until we decouple growth from oil production, economic growth will continue to follow the oil production curve, i.e. we are facing a permanent economic recession when oil production peaks and begins to decline.
We are facing a very serious energy supply security situation. Whether the peak is now or in 2025, action is required now. Ireland imports 90 per cent of its energy, and is heavily exposed as oil prices inexorably rise. What are our options?
Coal will certainly be an important part of the energy mix moving forward. It is abundant, and available from a number of locations around the world. However coal is greenhouse gas intensive, and large-scale sequestering of CO2 is still in the concept stage. Therefore we conclude that coal, along with oil and gas, will only be a transition fuels as we head for energy sustainability.
Nuclear power produces about 7 per cent of the world's energy and is generally thought of as a potential solution. We are all aware of concerns about waste disposal, cost, and security, and that in Ireland nuclear electricity generation appears to be socially and politically unacceptable. However it is also true that a major nuclear development programme using current technology will rapidly deplete uranium reserves, and will in any case take decades to implement. Therefore we conclude that nuclear technology will not aid the transition towards energy sustainability in Ireland, though it will have some value on a world level.
Renewable energy currently supplies about 2 per cent of Ireland's energy. Compared to fossil fuels, renewable energy has been expensive. There is a major technical challenge integrating large amounts of renewable (mostly wind) energy into the grid due to its intermittent nature (this is actually a cost concern - 100 per cent is technically possible, but it becomes progressively more costly). However, we have huge indigenous renewable energy resources, particularly in the case of wind energy.
Just as we had a visionary national rural electrification programme, we now need a visionary national renewable energy programme.
Such a vision might include:
• large-scale development of wind energy and bio-energy for electricity and heat
• development of the grid to better cope with renewable energy
• major energy conservation programmes
• incentives for biofuel and electric vehicles
• development of wave energy and other renewables
• development of electricity storage
To conclude, it would be prudent and conservative policy to immediately agree on a vision of our renewables-based energy future and then actively pursue it. The consequences of not having an energy policy are very serious. It is comforting to realise that Ireland can produce indigenous and pollution-free energy for the foreseeable future at what will shortly be a very competitive price. We only need to decide to do it.
A renewable energy future is desirable, possible, and inevitable.
Lawrence Staudt is the manager of the Centre for Renewable Energy at Dundalk IT. He has worked as an engineer for ESB and Airtricity and has been active in the field of renewable energy both nationally and internationally since 1978. He is chairman of the Irish Renewable Energy Council.