OPINION:Yesterday's votes will shake up representation at local and European levels. But who will lose and who will gain?
WHEN ALL the ballot papers are counted, and all the seats filled, each of the political parties will put the best possible gloss on the result. The Opposition will attempt to portray whatever gains they make as a great victory while the Government will try to package defeat as the best outcome in difficult circumstances.
Over the past few weeks, there has been a concerted attempt to manage expectations. In anticipation of a drubbing in the local elections and the two Dublin byelections Fianna Fáil has put the focus on holding its four European Parliament seats. If Eoin Ryan can squeak through in Dublin and the other three European seats are held, as expected, then Brian Cowen will claim it as a decent result.
The real test of Fianna Fáil, though, is not that modest target but the share of the popular vote it obtains. If the party falls behind Fine Gael for the first time in its history, it will be a landmark in Irish politics. If, as all the polls are suggesting, it is close to 10 per cent behind Fine Gael then the result will represent a political earthquake that will have ramifications for years to come.
Senior people in Fianna Fáil accept that the result is going to be bad but they entertain serious hopes that it will not be quite as disastrous as the polls are indicating. They believe that the candidate factor will muffle the impact of the swing against the party in both local and European elections.
They also point to the fact that in the last local elections they lost 80 seats so that, even if their share of the vote drops considerably, they could hold most of the 302 seats they won last time. A small dip under the 300 mark be a good result in the circumstances. However, if the Fianna Fáil vote drops to less than 25 per cent, 50 or more council seats will go. That, added to the inevitable defeat in the two byelections would represent a dreadful outcome for Fianna Fáil, even if Eoin Ryan holds on to his Dublin seat. It would have clear implications for the Government’s long-term survival and for Brian Cowen’s leadership.
The fortunes of the Green Party will also have a bearing on the Government’s fate. The party won 17 council seats in 2004 on a modest 3.7 per cent share of the vote. The ambition now is to retain most of those seats and for Deirdre De Burca to do respectably enough in the Dublin European election to qualify for €38,000 in State funding for her campaign.
A near wipe-out in terms of council seats might force the Green Party leadership to reassess their role in coalition and turn the impending review of the programme for government into a potential Coalition breaker.
If the Government parties are attempting to manage defeat by setting low thresholds for themselves, Fine Gael is setting a modest target for victory. Enda Kenny has identified his goal as winning more than 300 council seats and becoming the largest party in local government for the first time. Victory in at least one of the byelections and the retention of four of its current five European seats make up the rest of the official Fine Gael wish-list.
Of course, Fine Gael is actually hoping for much more. The party won 293 council seats in 2004 so it should be able to smash right through the 300 barrier. Making significant gains will not be as simple as it looks because the party won 33 per cent of the seats last time with just 27 per cent of the vote. Another problem for the party identified in the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll is that votes it would get in a general election slip to Independents in council elections. Still, Fine Gael should be capable of pushing its number of council seats well over the 320 mark.
If it does manage to come in significantly ahead of Fianna Fáil in terms of its share of the vote and the number of council seats, it will be an incredible achievement for a party whose obituary was so widely written in 2002. If, on top of that, it can win one or possibly two Dublin byelections, it will represent a fundamental change in the political map. Retaining five European seats would be the icing on the cake.
Fine Gael and Labour are in competition to harness the anti-Government mood in their favour and a very good performance by one could dent the ambitions of the other. Labour is certain to make to make serious gains in the local elections and could double or even treble its representation in the European Parliament from the single seat it now holds.
Labour won 101 council seats in 2004 with 11 per cent of the vote so, if the polls are right, and it comes close to 20 per cent this time around, it could be looking at a gain of close to 50 seats. The party added a number of candidates at the last minute to make sure that extra votes translate into the maximum number of seats.
If on top of such gains Labour can win the Dublin Central byelection and gain an extra European seat, it will represent a giant step towards achieving Eamon Gilmore’s ambition of turning Irish politics into a genuine three-way contest.
Sinn Féin made a real breakthrough in the local and European elections of 2004, winning one European seat and 54 council seats but the party has lost momentum in the Republic since then.
After a bitterly disappointing general election, the target this time around is to hold the gains made five years ago. The retention of the Dublin European seat would be a huge achievement, given the reduction in the constituency from a four- to a three-seater but winning more than 50 council seats should be an easier task.