Eight surveys of public opinion were conducted in support of the Northern Ireland peace process between April 1996 and May 2000.
With an average of more than 100 questions or options in each poll and 1,000 people interviewed, nearly one million answers were given, one for almost every person with a right to vote in Northern Ireland. The results of these polls should not be dismissed lightly, for they represent the views of the people. Perhaps the time has come to take stock of what they have said.
Public support for an agreement (any agreement) was first tested in March 1997 when 94 per cent (93 per cent Protestant and 97 per cent Catholic) said they did "support the principle of a negotiated settlement for the political future of Northern Ireland".
However, when the outline of a real agreement was tested a year later in March 1998, only 77 per cent said they would vote Yes (74 per cent Protestant and 81 per cent Catholic), and just two months later, in the referendum of May 1998, the Yes vote fell to 71 per cent of an 81 per cent turnout.
Support for the Belfast Agreement was higher in the Republic at 94 per cent. In February 1999 the Northern electorate was asked: "Do you want the Belfast Agreement to work?": 93 per cent said Yes (89 per cent Protestant and 97 per cent Catholic).
By October 1999, at the time of the Mitchell review, support started to fall again, with only 83 per cent saying they wanted the agreement to work (72 per cent Protestant and 98 per cent Catholic). This time, people were also asked how they would vote if the referendum was held again.
Of those who said they would vote, only 65 per cent said Yes (49 per cent Protestant and 88 per cent Catholic).
In May 2000, shortly after the IRA said it would put its arms "beyond use", support for the agreement rose to a high of 74 per cent Yes (55 per cent Protestant and 94 per cent Catholic) although it fell back again in the most recent Belfast Telegraph poll of October 2000 to 69 per cent Yes (47 per cent Protestant and again 94 per cent Catholic).
People do want the agreement to work, but when the Executive was not up and running Catholic support was only 88 per cent (down from 94 per cent), and when decommissioning did not happen Protestant support fell to 47 per cent (down from 55 per cent).
Conversely, when all appears to be going well with the agreement, support for it has risen, for a brief few weeks, above the referendum level of 71 per cent to as much as 74 per cent and has the potential to go as high as 93 per cent for those who, in spite of their doubts, want to see it work.
Clearly, come the British general election, any pro-agreement party which can be seen to make the agreement work will receive the thanks of its electorate, while playing the blame game may not prove to be the best of winning strategies.
How people will vote on a given day in a given constituency is a complex question depending on whether, for example, the candidate is anti or pro-agreement, how they feel about that particular candidate, if they wish to register some sort of protest vote by abstaining and which voting system is used on the day (which varies a lot in Northern Ireland).
So who someone votes for, particularly in Northern Ireland, can often be very different from the party and policies a voter may support. As a consequence the "Which one of these Northern Ireland political parties do you support?" question from the polls tells a sometimes different story from the results of the various elections covering the same period.
The trends in the polls are quite revealing. For example, although people have tended to slightly inflate their support for the Alliance Party for the four polls conducted between March 1997 and March 1998 at 10 per cent, this has dropped to only 67 per cent for the three polls conducted between February 1999 and May 2000 after Lord Alderdice gave up his party's leadership.
Although Sinn Fein support tends to be a little underreported, it increased from 9 to 17 per cent in 1997 when it went into the Stormont talks while DUP support fell from 16 to 11 per cent when it withdrew from the talks.
DUP support has been restored to as much as 17 or 18 per cent as implementation of the Belfast Agreement has gone through its various difficulties.
Support for the major pro-agreement unionist and nationalist parties seems to be far more steady, with the SDLP averaging about 22 per cent and the UUP 25 per cent.
As for the smaller parties, the UKUP dropped from 4 to 1 per cent when its leader, Bob McCartney, broke ranks with his other Assembly members.
The loyalist PUP and UDP have consistently held on to about 5 per cent support, with the PUP outperforming the UDP when the UDA/UFF have been associated with increases in sectarian violence. Support for the Women's Coalition holds firm at about 1 or 2 per cent.
These trends in party support are significant for a number of reasons. First, in the coming Westminster general election, with its first-past-the-post system of voting, it is strategic voting and electoral pacts which will most likely win the day, not simple party support.
For example, the UUP could strike a deal with the DUP, as it has done in the past, or with Alliance by running pro-agreement candidates. Perhaps the PUP should also be factored into such calculations. Additionally the SDLP and Sinn Fein might also start to enter into pacts.
If the electoral system returned candidates who reflected simple party support then, like the polls, the political landscape of Northern Ireland would be both far more predictable and stable.
The smaller centre parties and loyalists would be assured of their influence, however limited, and the larger pro-agreement parties would be assured of their political power, albeit slightly restrained.
The people of Northern Ire land want the Belfast Agreement to work; in the absence of effective pro-agreement pacts, this may yet require a reformed electoral system which will better support the peace process, not undermine it.
Dr Colin Irwin is a fellow in the Institute of Irish Studies at Queen's University Belfast. His research is supported by grants from the university's foundation and the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. The fieldwork for the public opinion polls was undertaken by Market Research Northern Ireland