Despite the best efforts of South Africa's President Mandela, the civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo seems likely to turn into a regional conflagration of frightening proportions. If that happens, the blame will lie mostly with Angola's President dos Santos and Zimbabwe's President Mugabe who have sided with the failed regime of President Kabila, not for the general good of the region but purely for their own self-interest.
Zimbabwe is owed $93 million by Mr Kabila for military aid already supplied and further millions for other aid. If the rebels assume power, the debts will not be paid, so Mr Mugabe, regardless of the consequences, sends troops and equipment to shore up Mr Kabila. Mr dos Santos has still not brought to heel the UNITA rebels fighting against his government and using the Congo as a supply corridor, so he sends in troops and fighter aircraft. And for both men, not far from the surface, there is the desire to support incumbent power of whatever hue. Mr Mugabe has been in office for almost eleven years, Mr dos Santos has been president for 19 years - and neither of them has democratic credentials to be proud of.
Mr Mandela, as chairman of the 14-member South African Development Community (SADC) had implored neighbouring states not to send in troops because it would only worsen the conflict. He called a meeting of SADC heads of state in Pretoria last weekend but Mr dos Santos and Mr Mugabe decided, firstly not to show up, and secondly to ignore his pleadings.
The scenario feared by Mr Mandela is now coming to pass. Uganda's President Museveni, irritated by Mr Kabila's failure (or unwillingness) to stop guerrilla raids into Uganda from Congo territory, has sent in troops with a mission, for a start, to seal the border. The Tutsi government of Rwanda, alarmed at the prospect of Congo Tutsis being slaughtered by Mr Kabila and his allies, seems certain to deploy troops in large numbers, if it has not done so already. Rwanda is not being alarmist. The Congo's Banyamalunge Tutsi have always suffered discrimination, for example by being denied citizenship. As the revolt is Tutsi-lead, Mr Kabila, if he came out on top, would be certain to exact revenge on the Tutsi population and not concern himself if it gets out of hand.
And so the tragedy of the Congo continues. Exploited and abused by the Belgians for 80 years, ruined and pillaged by Mobutu Sese Seko, it saw a saviour in Mr Kabila when he assumed power fourteen months ago. But in a very short time Mr Kabila has proved to be little improvement on Mr Mobutu. He has promised elections for next April but has banned political parties, closed newspapers, thrown human rights campaigners in jail and packed people from his own province into the positions of power.
The Congo needs a unifying leader who can bring together its many disparate tribes who represent a mosaic of African peoples. It needs sustainable good governance if it is to attract investment and improve the lot of its impoverished people. Mr Kabila is incapable of unifying the country peacefully and neither can the rebels. Hopefully, the Organisation for African Unity will back up the SADC and convince both sides that only a ceasefire and brokered negotiations leading to fully democratic elections can prevent the country from breaking apart into rival fiefdoms with no peace and no future.