Seven weeks from today, Fine Gael has its chance to end two years of being portrayed as a party in permanent, long-term decline. The outcome of the local government and European Parliament elections on June 11th will decide whether the party can start the run-in to the next general election claiming credibly to be the core of an alternative government-in-waiting, writes Mark Brennock
This weekend at the Fine Gael Ardfheis, Enda Kenny will effectively launch his first election campaign as party leader. His speech to delegates at last December's Fine Gael conference received good reviews, being described as politically coherent and well delivered. That this was a matter of considerable note at the time showed how low expectations of him and his party had become.
Fine Gael now operates in a political and media atmosphere where its score in the last opinion poll often earns more comment than anything it might say or do.
Its struggle is to end the situation where every article about Fine Gael refers to its "languishing in the opinion polls", but instead concentrates on what the party has to say.
The party, which lost 20 seats in the 2002 general election, hasn't increased its opinion poll standing from the poor 22 per cent it received in that contest.
Party sources nevertheless say that this does not warrant the "party in decline" commentary. Their vote is static, they say, albeit at an unacceptably low level.
"There were a lot of articles after the election about how Labour would overtake Fine Gael, and how the PDs were going to pick us off. This hasn't happened," says one senior source.
Instead, he says, Labour and the Green Party are now talking about government formation, and Fine Gael is part of their plans. There has been considerable co-ordination between the parties in putting across the message that there is a possible alternative government.
Enda Kenny was quoted as talking about creating a "caring coalition"; Labour has spoken of a "Democratic Alliance". Pat Rabbitte has ruled out going into government with Fianna Fáil. The Green Party leader Trevor Sargent at his recent conference envisaged a coalition excluding Fianna Fáil, and therefore involving Fine Gael and Labour.
Enda Kenny mentioned Pat Rabbitte in his speech last December. Mr Rabbitte called on Labour voters to transfer to Fine Gael and Green Party candidates in his speech last weekend. There will be more public displays of affection before the campaign is over. On its own this will hardly be enough.
First, the party must show it is capable of leading this alternative coalition to win the 26 seats it needs to be able to form a government.
If success breeds success, failure breeds failure. And with Fine Gael still failing to portray itself as the dynamic and dominant part of an alternative government, its leader and strategists are aware that every action of theirs is put under a microscope in the search for further signs of weakness.
So how can they escape the failure cycle? The European Parliament elections offer the party its best shot. For a depressed party they have selected an impressive team of candidates. Expectations have fallen so low that Gay Mitchell winning a seat for the party in the capital would be seen as a major success. The party's vote collapsed in Dublin in the 2002 election, and recovery there is essential if the party is to reverse its decline as a national force. Mr Mitchell is a high-profile, hard-working candidate and has a real chance.
Simon Coveney will have a hard task to win a seat in the new South constituency, which has been reduced to three seats from the old four-seat Munster constituency.
Jim Higgins and Madeleine Taylor Quinn have a good chance of taking a seat between them in North West, while the selection of Avril Doyle MEP and journalist Maireád McGuinness will ensure a substantial challenge from Fine Gael in East.
A good European election outcome could offset the expected Fine Gael losses in the local government elections and be used to give an impression of a party that has begun a revival.
Fine Gael won 28 per cent in the local government elections of 1999, and opinion polls suggests it is at around 22 per cent now.
That suggests significant seat losses in June. The party may, however, avoid another bout of "terminal decline" commentary if the strength of its European Parliament candidates produces a stronger performance that the party's opinion poll standing suggests.
If they do, people may start to pay more attention to what Fine Gael stands for. But what does it stand for? Pat Rabbitte made it clear last weekend that his alternative government should be guided by social democratic, left-of-centre principles. Fine Gael figures reject attempts to define them as left of centre or right of centre, preferring instead to concentrate on the historically traditional messages of trust, honesty and public service.
The two billboard advertisements of Enda Kenny (one with jacket on, one with jacket off) that have been placed around the country don't contain any of the usual ideological clues either.
"I'll put you first", says one. "It's time for truth in politics. For a change", says the other.
Party sources say these are designed to contrast the party to the Government, which they portray as cynical and opportunistic and committed to power at all costs.
They say they are some distance from constructing an election platform, but when it comes, it will concentrate on practical pro-consumer, pro-efficiency proposals.
A bit of Labour's social democratic priorities and the Green Party's pro-citizen message would be married quite easily to this.
One of Fine Gael's successes in the past year has been its ripoff.ie website, used by the party to campaign about high prices.
It has produced researched, attention-grabbing reports comparing prices in Irish branches of UK multiples, and exposing alleged rip-offs of prices in pubs, of CDs and in the agriculture sector.
A successful conference this weekend could launch Fine Gael to a good election, a reshuffled front bench and a joint march with Labour and the Greens towards Government.
But without a good election in seven weeks, talk of the declining party will continue.