The Fine Gael leader does not have the command of economic policy required for credibility, writes VINCENT BROWNE
AFTER THE disastrous performance of Fine Gael in the 2002 election, I wrote a column that began with a prayer for Fine Gael: “May the angels lead you into paradise; may the martyrs come to welcome you and take you to the holy city, the new and eternal Jerusalem.”
Shortly after Fine Gael’s resurrection in the 2007 general election, I met Enda Kenny on the street. He quoted my premature obsequy for Fine Gael and I recanted. But the angels and martyrs might need to be on alert tomorrow, for Fine Gael could be about to do itself in, again.
Fianna Fáil’s support has collapsed by about 20 percentage points since the 2007 election. Even Fine Gael’s most impressive poll ratings over the last 18 months have shown it has been able to capture only a small proportion of the chunk of support Fianna Fáil has lost.
Yes, Fine Gael has emerged as the party with the largest support for most of this time, but, clearly, by default. And throughout all this time Enda Kenny’s ratings have been poor. Last Friday’s poll was of course awful for the party. Back to the support it had won in 2007, at a time when Fianna Fáil had collapsed to 18 per cent, and Kenny’s ratings were abject.
Part of the problem is Kenny does not have the command of policy that a credible party leader requires in our political system and culture. This is particularly so in the area of economic policy where politics is almost all about economics nowadays. But he has got away with it so far.
And he has got away with it largely because he has had Richard Bruton to do the leadership thing in the area that now matters most. It didn’t matter that much if Enda didn’t know a contract for difference from a hedge fund. Richard did. Richard understood the good bank/bad bank option, Enda didn’t but it didn’t matter. Richard knew all about quantitative easing and so what if Enda thought it had something to do with calving heifers?
Now without Richard and without most of the other credible performers on the front bench, Enda and Fine Gael will have no credibility that all. That is if Enda survives tomorrow. No credibility in the main Opposition party at a time when the parties in government have no credibility at all either.
According to The Irish Times poll of last weekend, 40 per cent of those polled said they wanted neither Brian Cowen nor Enda Kenny as taoiseach, with 9 per cent having no opinion. And, tellingly, this was an unprompted response. More than 60 per cent did not want Kenny as taoiseach and 65 per cent said they didn’t want Cowen as Taoiseach.
It might be assumed Fine Gael TDs and Senators are rational and would not do wilful damage to their own political prospects, but how can that be assumed when the crowd in Government are doing just that?
Fianna Fáil is certain to take a hammering in the next election whenever it happens. But it could mitigate the scale of that hammering if it were to get rid of Brian Cowen as leader and Taoiseach, and replace him even with someone such as Dermot Ahern. Clearly Brian Lenihan would be by far the preferred option for Fianna Fáil and, failing him, Micheál Martin, but almost anyone would be better than Brian Cowen.
More than any other person, possibly with the exception of Bertie Ahern, Brian Cowen bears responsibility for both the economic collapse and the banking collapse. The recent revelation he interfered with the financial regulator in the latter’s attempt to get bank directors to sign statements of compliance with proper bank practice is, itself, devastating to his credibility, that is if he had any credibility left to be devastated.
And yet Fianna Fáil lapses into denial as it did in yesterday’s confidence debate. It’s vuvuzela politics, the incessant noise of Fianna Fáil-speak: the problems arise solely from the tough, courageous decisions the Government is taking; only Fianna Fáil can rescue the country; we are all to blame for the crisis, not just Brian Cowen.
This all matters a bit.
A Richard Bruton-led Fine Gael/Labour would be better than the present Government. The damage of the bank guarantee would be lessened; there would be more of a focus on job creation; Richard Bruton would instigate reforms to how the government does business; and Labour would inspire a few other institutional changes. But an Enda Kenny-led government? One without Richard Bruton holding Enda up? Maybe not as bad as the present crowd, but only maybe. In truth it all doesn’t matter that much, for even a Richard Bruton-led Fine Gael/Labour government would retain largely intact the present distribution of income and wealth, the same inequality in power and status, the same belittlement of a large segment of society. And the charade of what we call democracy would persist.