The election of Mr Ruairi Quinn as leader of the Labour Party has signalled the party's priority in expanding a Dublin electoral base. Five years ago, Labour was represented by 13 TDs in the capital city, but its strength was cut to five Dail seats in last June's general election. The shattering defeat in Dublin was replicated on a smaller scale in other parts of the country, but the message was clear: if the Labour Party was to regain its central role in Irish politics, it would have to reassert its influence in Dublin, which now contains one-third of the population.
The 64 members of the parliamentary party and general council considered the issues and objectives carefully; took cognisance of the urban/rural divide; looked to the future and plumped for Mr Quinn. It was a pragmatic choice, a decision based on leadership style and experience as much as policy content. The "face on the poster" consideration and the promise of "a safe pair of hands" along with Mr Quinn's established profile on Northern Ireland, won out over more youthful drive and ambition.
The choice of the Dublin South East TD as party leader will cause Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to redouble their efforts to consolidate their organisations in Dublin where the phenomenon of the floating vote has seriously undermined traditional party loyalties. Fine Gael secured a five point increase in its Dublin vote in the last election and moved back into second position, while Fianna Fail added four points. The gains made by both parties at the expense of Labour were subsequently reflected in the voting patterns of the Presidential election.
The combination of Mr Quinn as leader and Mr Brendan Howlin as deputy leader may give the party the kind of reinvigorating balance it requires in the aftermath of the rather aloof and distant leadership of Mr Dick Spring. Neither man would seem to possess the incisive qualities of parliamentary leadership displayed by the former leader, but together they may project a warmer, more accessible and appealing party image. The immediate election of Mr Howlin as deputy leader - once Mr Quinn's success was announced - may have been irregular, but it projected the image of a party united in its determination to recover lost ground and return to government. In that regard, Mr Quinn spoke of his preference for a general election should the present Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats Government collapse in the near future.
That the new Labour Party leader faces a daunting task in terms of restructuring the organisation, developing policies and establishing a co-operative framework with other left-wing groups, goes without saying. He has only months in which to prepare for two important Dail by-elections. But the really big test will hinge on the local government elections which are scheduled for 1998. A revival in the party's Dail fortunes in the medium term is likely to depend on the calibre, and the number, of councillors returned in those elections. Beyond that, Mr Quinn's leadership, new policies and the quality of Dail performances will decide the issue for many voters.