Having no substantial electoral base in some constituencies is proving a problem
FINE GAEL might be justified in thinking that they just cannot get a break. On the verge of being elected to lead the government, they know that when they get to their departmental desks, they will be dealing with unprecedented economic problems.
As if that wasn’t enough, the European Court of Human Rights has thrown a further political grenade into the new government’s in-tray by placing abortion back on the agenda. It is clear from their respective reactions to the judgment that Fine Gael and Labour are far from agreement on this issue, with Labour politicians talking about the need to legislate, while Fine Gael spokesmen talk about taking time to consider the judgment.
The latest bombshell came just as Fine Gael was gaining the upper hand in the most recent of opinion poll. The party gained 6 per cent in this week’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI, putting them back over 30 per cent and more importantly putting them back ahead of the Labour Party.
Notwithstanding an extraordinary series of political and economic happenings and the resultant collapse in Fianna Fáil support, Fine Gael is still only 3 per cent above where it was in May 2007. The boost in this poll comes at an important time and will settle nerves in the party in the lead into the election campaign.
The fall in Labour’s support will be equally comforting to Fine Gael. In this Ipsos MRBI poll, Labour is at 25 per cent, having fallen 8 per cent from the dizzy heights achieved in various polls in the early autumn. This suggests that some of the wind may be going out of the Gilmore gale. However, Labour’s standing is still impressive; even at the figures achieved in this poll, Labour is 2½ times as strong as it was in May 2007.
Labour has been extraordinarily successful at attracting voters who have left Fianna Fáil, particularly in Dublin and particularly among public sector workers. This poll suggests that for every 20 voters who voted for Fianna Fáil in 2007, 12 are telling pollsters they will not now support the party. Of those 12, Labour has attracted seven or eight, Fine Gael has attracted a couple and the others have moved to Sinn Féin or Independents.
Labour has just completed the last of its selection conventions and, according to Prof Adrian Kavanagh, who watches these things closely, Labour currently has 62 candidates in the field. The party now faces key decisions about whether to add candidates to some tickets and whether it can find candidates to contest in some of the remaining constituencies where it has no substantial electoral base.
This poll confirms that next year’s contest will be a tale of two elections for Labour. The Labour surge is measured very high in Dublin and the party is on course to challenge for two seats in most constituencies in the capital. The situation is entirely different in Ulster, most of Connacht and much of northwest Leinster.
Labour has sought to address this problem by acquisitions and mergers. They have head-hunted high-profile local personalities and/or brought Independent candidates and their organisation in under the Labour banner.
Frank McBrearty in Donegal South West is the most prominent example of both the potential and limitations of the former approach. He comfortably won a council seat in the 2009 local election but did not have sufficient constituency-wide support to cause an impact in the byelection.
John Kelly in Roscommon is the most interesting example of the latter approach. He polled 2,239 first preferences in the Castlerea area as an Independent in the 2009 local elections but will run in the Dáil elections for Labour. Given the growing anti-establishment mood among voters, Kelly might have been wiser to stay independent. There is a risk for Kelly now that he will be outflanked by another Independent councillor, “Ming” Flanagan, who has the advantage of being current county mayor.
Labour Party candidates have admitted privately in recent months that they are nervous. They are unsure about what they can say, and fear that anything they say can only cost them the votes garnered by the Gilmore-led surge.
Now in addition to trying to compete with Fine Gael for mainstream middle-class votes, Labour faces a challenge from Sinn Féin on its left flank. The party’s position is precarious. It will do very well but some of its new support is very soft.
Apparently there was shock among Fianna Fáil parliamentarians in Leinster House as news of these poll figures seeped out on Thursday evening. It is not clear why they were surprised. It is a compliment to Ipsos MRBI, long-regarded as the gold plate in polling agencies, that Fianna Fáil needed to have it confirm what two recent Red C polls had already made clear.
This poll is again a disaster for Fianna Fáil not least because while Fianna Fáil politicians feel they have landed some punches in their attack on Labour’s vagueness, the benefit is not accruing to Fianna Fáil itself. More vigorous performances from the party and the Taoiseach of late may have raised party morale but is not impacting on the party’s vote share.
This poll shows a statistically dramatic shift in the support levels for the three big parties and more impressive movement for Sinn Féin, even when compared to the most recent comparable poll taken just 2½ months ago, all of which suggests that things will continue to be dramatic and volatile right up to polling day.