Labour's strategy

The outline of the general election campaign is gradually taking shape as the Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, prepares to …

The outline of the general election campaign is gradually taking shape as the Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, prepares to seek permission from his party's annual conference to enter a pre-election pact with Fine Gael.

Labour's national executive endorsed this approach by a margin of two to one, last weekend. And, in view of such solid support, conference delegates are unlikely to deny Mr Rabbitte his preferred course of action.

Some members of the parliamentary Labour Party oppose this approach on the grounds that, traditionally, such a pact has tended to benefit Fine Gael, rather than Labour. By keeping all government-formation options open, they argue, they could maximise their vote and even attract Fianna Fáil transfers. The conference debate, which takes place at the end of the month, is likely to be contentious and will be televised. But the party is expected to unite behind the agreed strategy.

Since his election as Labour Party leader, Mr Rabbitte has made no secret of his determination to oust Fianna Fáil from office. And he has declared that, in the event of Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party failing to secure a working Dáil majority, he will not lead his party into a coalition arrangement with Fianna Fáil. It is a high-risk strategy and could, conceivably, force Mr Rabbitte's resignation as party leader if the Dáil arithmetic does not work out for him after the election and Fianna Fáil comes calling.

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Given the circumstances, Mr Rabbitte is determined to place the option of an alternative government before the electorate at the earliest possible time in the hope it will attract public support for the opposition parties. The precise nature of any manifesto - if one is successfully negotiated - is likely to be kept under wraps until the election has been called. But the situation has been complicated by the decision of the Green Party not to become involved in negotiations at this time.

The latest opinion polls have shown just how difficult the task of displacing Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats will be, after nearly eight years in government. Their combined strength exceeds that of their challengers by a significant margin. But recent byelection results, following a disastrous showing in the local elections, indicate an intrinsic vulnerability. Because of that, the Tánaiste and leader of the Progressive Democrats, Mary Harney, has already opened the door to a possible post-election deal involving Fine Gael. And she has not been rebuffed. The strategy of the various parties, as they seek to maximise voting transfers, will become clearer in the months ahead.