The Opposition will today try to cash in on Brian Cowen's loyalty to his leader, writes Mark Hennessy.
TAOISEACH BERTIE Ahern's reputation has suffered each time he has entered the gates of Dublin Castle, and he faces more occasions when he must sit before the Mahon tribunal. Nevertheless, he avoided fatal damage up to now, or at least he did up until last Friday, when news that Celia Larkin received a £30,000 loan in March 1993 from Ahern's constituency organisation to buy a house.
For once, a story simple enough to tell in a sentence had emerged from the castle.
The question now exercising many Fianna Fáil TDs is whether a tipping point has been passed, and whether a public that had been content to let Ahern pick his own time of departure - even if it no longer largely believed his frequently changing accounts - will run out of patience.
Up to now, a majority, confused or bored by Mahon's maze of detail, or - as in the case of many - convinced that a decent man is being hounded, has not been engaged by the tribunal.
However, a Rubicon dangerous for Ahern may have been crossed following the house disclosure, amid Ahern's claims that he - the ultimate political ward boss, who knows every blade of grass in his constituency - did not know about the transaction until afterwards.
Some in Fianna Fáil are only too well aware of the revelations' political toxicity, shuffling uncomfortably when faced with questions about how long Ahern will, or should, last in power. Others, however, are behaving like soldiers fighting a battle long past, endlessly repeating the mantra that Ahern never received donations from Owen O'Callaghan.
The issues before the tribunal, they intone, should not be judged by anyone outside until the judges publish their final report - something that is now likely to be a year away given Ahern's upcoming High Court challenge.
But the issue has moved beyond that. Undoubtedly, it is up to Mahon to have the last word on the merit of the O'Callaghan allegations, and on many elements of Ahern's often chaotic financial affairs.
However, many are unlikely now to wait for instruction from Mahon or anyone else on issues such as the house, and on the mounting evidence that significant sums of money came from sources still unexplained into Ahern's political and personal accounts - the facts of which are known and undisputed.
None of the above is to argue that Ahern is facing a leadership challenge, since Fianna Fáil TDs do not attack their own because others say that they should.
However, there is little doubt that the hands on the clock that has been running on Ahern's departure ever since he laid his hands upon Brian Cowen after the election has started to move faster.
On Saturday, Ógra Fianna Fáil rallied to Ahern's side, particularly after he voiced to them his appreciation of their support and loyalty in times past. His decision, perhaps, to voice that appreciation is an indication of how much of his once limitless political capital has been exhausted.
So, too, did Cowen rally, to a point. He voiced confidence in and support for the Taoiseach only when asked, rather than volunteering such pledges - although whether that was accidental or deliberate will have to remain an open question for now.
However, he did put some space between himself and Ahern by describing the house loan as "not a run-of-the-mill" disbursement, regardless of his clarifications yesterday.
The Opposition has long believed that the real target now is Cowen, not a politician who will be gone by the next election one way or the other, and that Cowen's declarations of support for Ahern can be used to damage him in the future.
History would tend to show otherwise. Few now can remember, or care about, the strident, often viciously intemperate declarations of support for Charles Haughey that came from Fianna Fáil TDs. Once a leader is gone, the political waters close quickly, and past words have a tendency to sink slowly to the bottom where they remain out of view, of interest only to historians.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny's decision to give advance notice of his intention to tackle Cowen about his support for Ahern when he stands in during Dáil question time this week, while Ahern is in Slovenia and Poland, raises the stakes considerably - but most especially for himself.
So far Kenny, in his head-to-heads with Cowen, has rarely landed an effective punch, and the Tánaiste will now be more than prepared for a fight.
Nevertheless, Fianna Fáil has reasons for concern. For months it has been relatively easy for its TDs to stand beside Ahern since they correctly argued that they were not receiving abuse, or even much in the way of displays of interest, from grassroots members or constituents about the tribunal, or his continued leadership.
In addition, the controversy has distracted attention from economic issues, and other areas where Fianna Fáil's brand might have suffered more damage. In a sense, Ahern has provided cover for a party threatened by typical post-election blues.
The Larkin revelation could change all of that - certainly both Fine Gael and Labour think so, as do a minority of Fianna Fáil TDs privately - unless Ahern can fundamentally alter the way in which it has been viewed so far.
Some in Fianna Fáil were uncomfortable about Larkin's place in the party's galaxy during her time at Ahern's side, particularly during foreign trips, or State functions at home.
And they are uncomfortable about Ahern's explanations now, believing it is simply not credible that he could not have been aware of, and not have approved, the loans made to Larkin to buy the Glasnevin house at the centre of the latest controversy.
The £30,000 loan was given, says Ahern, on condition that it would be repaid on demand; or if a mortgage was taken out on the house; or when all of her relatives had passed on.
None of those conditions was met - by Ahern's own admission on Saturday - when the money was repaid in January, leaving open the suspicion that it would not have been repaid if the tribunal had not found it.
Once the Lisbon Treaty referendum is over, not to mention Ahern's US Houses of Congress speech in late April, he will find it increasingly difficult to explain even to his own why he should stay around, and why they should let him.