A NATIONAL census offers a picture of the population of a country on a particular date. Last year, preliminary results of the 2011 census showed an 8.2 per cent increase to 4.6 million people. Now the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has published, with great speed and in an accessible form, the first of a number of detailed reports that will – by topic and theme – analyse changes in the population structure.
The census is not simply a national head count. The data collected tells a country more about itself: who we are, where and how we live and work, and indeed what choices we may have to face in future. The census information is needed to plan economic development, and to identify the needs of society. The detail that has emerged so far is surprising, challenging and fascinating.
What the 2011 data shows is the continuance of a remarkable population trend that began in 1961. That date marked a major turning point in Irish demography. It was the end of 120 years of population decline in Ireland, a halving in size since pre-Famine times. By contrast, in the last half-century the population has increased by almost two-thirds. And, despite the economic downturn, the trend remains upwards.
In the 1950s some serious questions were raised by writers, in books such as The Vanishing Irish, on whether Ireland risked extinction; given that for more than a century, the country, had been drained by high emigration, weak economic growth, a low marriage rate and a population in what seemed like terminal decline. The economic challenges that Ireland face today are, in certain respects, more daunting than those posed in the parallel crises of the 1950s and the 1980s.
However, Ireland in 2012 is also a very different place and time, and people are imbued with a different spirit. In a globalised world, the movements of people are freer and the flows of capital are less constrained. Nevertheless, one of the most surprising census figures is the rise in the number of people resident in the State who were born outside Ireland. That and the high rate of natural increase – the difference between the number of births and deaths – which reflects Ireland’s high birth rate, have greatly contributed to the overall population rise. Does this baby boom in the midst of a prolonged recession provide more reasons for hope than grounds for fear about Ireland’s economic future? That is one of the many challenging questions that will arise for public debate from the detail of the 2011 census.