The exit polls after voting finished in Britain's election had an unsettling, indeed uncanny, accuracy. Predicting a reduced majority of 66 seats for the Labour Party, they were within an ace of the actual result. The peculiarly disproportionate election demographics give Labour some 55 per cent of the parliamentary seats with only 36 per cent of the votes cast - the lowest share for any governing party since the Great Reform Act of 1832.
This result accurately represents the electorate's desire to give Labour a solid victory over the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats - but with a smaller majority reflecting accumulated dissatisfaction about its record in government.
Mr Tony Blair has won an unprecedented third term as a Labour prime minister - an achievement which must not be obscured by his reduced majority. He has pledged to listen and learn from the voters following an intensive campaign and to focus on a definite programme of reforms. He acknowledges disagreements over Iraq and wants to put them behind his new government. The reshuffle announced last night confirms that it will be less presidential, more collegial and much more in touch with party and parliamentary sentiment than in his first two terms.
Mr Blair has learned the hard way how politically necessary is such a reorientation, given the reduced trust in his leadership. He is a weaker figure within his party; but it remains to be seen how soon he comes under pressure to make way for another leader - and how soon he yields to it. In the meantime he has a strong domestic and international agenda, especially on EU affairs. This includes next year's referendum on the constitutional treaty which will decide on his long-standing, but as yet undelivered ambition to take the UK to the heart of Europe.
Whoever succeeds Mr Blair will face a daunting challenge to refocus the Labour Party's policy and prepare for the next election in which it will face competition from a potentially regalvanised Conservative party under a new leadership. Mr Michael Howard's decision to relinquish it yesterday after his failure to defeat Mr Blair anticipates that it will be a more effective one.
Conservatives will choose their leader conscious that their likely long-term adversary will be Mr Gordon Brown. If so they will find it difficult to compete with his scepticism on European integration, although probably easier so on taxation, immigration and state spending. In this competition a great deal will depend on how well the British economy continues to perform in more and more uncertain conditions.