Sir, - The members of the Provisional IRA's Army Council no doubt consider themselves military men and traditionally have little time for politics; but if they are, in fact, considering breaking their ceasefire, it would be nothing less than an act of political madness. It would drive Trimble and the UUP away from the Good Friday Agreement and into the arms of Paisley and other anti-agreement unionists. Sinn Fein would be totally discredited. The centre would collapse, making power-sharing impossible. It would also encourage dissident Loyalists to break their ceasefires or increase their campaigns and hand the DUP a propaganda coup.
It is difficult to see how any of this would forward the Provisionals' cause. Perhaps the thinking is that London would "give". The only trouble is that it is with the unionists that agreement must be reached, not London. London can facilitate an agreed Ireland, but cannot create it; only nationalists and unionists can do that. What if London loses patience and assumes that a political settlement is impossible? London has always been keener to view Irish problems in terms of security rather than politics. And if the British government cracks down, Dublin will be right behind it, especially if the ceasefire is broken during the run-up to the first anniversary of the Omagh massacre.
There is an alternative: accept the Good Friday Agreement as a peace agreement bringing the conflict to an end, and agree to reduce arms to peacetime levels as part of a process of normalisation. This would place the ball firmly back in the unionist camp, and it is difficult to see how the UUP could then object to the creation of the Executive.
The choices are as simple as they are stark: move the political process on and see the President of Provisional Sinn Fein as a Minister in Stormont, or end the ceasefire and destroy everything that has been achieved thus far. - Yours, etc.,
Sean Swan, Gothenburg, Sweden.