Madam, - Joe Humphreys laments that "China is undermining Europe's policy on Burma" (Opinion, June 28th). Last month I attended a conference at Xiamen University in China arranged by Chinese experts on Myanmar [Burma] at which they asked why the EU seemed so intent on undermining Asian policy on Myanmar through sanctions and ostracism. This policy, they said, only entrenched the generals in power, delayed democracy and undermined the country's stability.
On Total, my impression is that the Chinese would be only too delighted to take over the French 31 per cent stake. But they realise there would be sharp competition from India, Thailand and South Korea, and that Burma itself might wish to add the French stake to its current 15 per cent holding as it is flush with foreign exchange reserves, currently over $3 billion.
More generally, even if the Burmese decided not to take the Total stake, they would gain substantially from Total's departure. Their income would increase, because Total's Asian successors would be likely to cut down on the present social welfare programmes for villagers along the pipeline and other aid projects in Burma. Asian technicians, replacing French technicians, would be likely to accept lower salaries, thus boosting profits. Asian successors might also cut corners financially - for example, by paying less attention to environmental concerns.
Total would also have to pay substantial capital gains to the Burmese authorities amounting to hundreds of millions of US$ since the value of the initial US$ 1 billion investment has doubled if not tripled in the last year. Finally, the French "hearts and minds" security team along the pipeline would very probably be replaced by the Burmese army, which is not noted for its benevolence towards ethnic villagers, who would view Total's departure with dismay.
In supporting action to compel Total's departure from Burma, Mr Humphreys is in fact helping the generals to increase their income from natural gas, promoting the growing influence of China in Burmese affairs, reducing Western exposure and a source of Western influence and generally causing dismay to most Burmese, particularly local villagers, none of whom want to see Total's departure and their replacement by yet another Asian company.
So might I suggest that he take a fresh look at the facts and not let emotion cloud his judgment? The first thing, though, is to establish the facts. The next thing would be to support the wishes and aspirations of the Burmese people. They have, believe me, had enough of Western sanctions.
I should add that I have no shares in Total and no contractual relationship of any kind with the company. - Yours, etc,
DEREK TONKIN,
(British Ambassador to Thailand, 1986-1990),
Guildford,
Surrey,
England.