Madam, – Prof Morgan Kelly’s stark Opinion piece (May 22nd) has been followed by an avalanche of comments on your website congratulating him for spelling out what he sees as the catastrophic effects of the banks’ guarantee.
Prof Kelly’s credibility is sky high since he predicted the current crisis. However, there is a significant simplification in his article which is the assumption that all of the future losses of the banks will be added to our national debt. This does not automatically follow. A contrary view was expressed by the Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan recently. Prof Honohan said that the banks’ cushion of shareholders’ funds would enable them to pay their debts from their own resources. Add to the mix of opinions the comments by Prof John FitzGerald, of the ESRI, that he expects the State to earn a positive return on the funds invested in Bank of Ireland and AIB, but not on the Anglo and Irish Nationwide funds, which is dead money.
So are we facing financial meltdown or is the situation manageable? Clearly some eminent economists are in fundamental disagreement.
These are complex matters. Rather than airing differing views to a confused public, it would be in the national interest for a representative group of economists to debate their positions in private, to see what common ground can be found to guide Government policy.
At a political level, the handling of the crisis is hampered by our adversarial parliamentary system. How horrendous does the threat to the State need to be before our politicians will adopt a cross-party approach? If our politicians were to cooperate it would redeem much of the respect that has been lost over the years. Also a unified approach would foster national and international confidence which is a key element to any solution. – Yours, etc,
Madam, – I admire economist Morgan Kelly for his courage in declaring, in the middle of the last decade, that the emperor had no clothes. It’s also fair to point out that many of the people who have decried his latest dire economic warnings (Opinion, May 22nd) were trying to shout down him and his ilk three or four years ago.
However one wonders whether Prof Kelly enjoys dispensing “shock and awe” just as much as reasoned prediction. I carefully noted one part of an Opinion piece he wrote in this newspaper on January 20th, 2009, as it appeared to be offering some hostages to fortune, “unemployment will easily reach 15 per cent by the end of the summer and 20 per cent by next year”. CSO figures show that the standardised unemployment rate at the end of 2009 was 13.1 per cent. The figure for the end of April 2010 was 13.4 per cent. – Yours, etc,
Madam, – Morgan Kelly’s contribution (Opinion, May 22nd) was brilliant, in the sense that it shone a bright light, and it was absolutely to the point.
Quelle surprise! Those responsible for the stupid decisions taken in September 2008 that have us on the brink of bankruptcy shoot the messenger.
Thank you, Prof Kelly, for explaining what brought us here, and what lies ahead. What a shame those with the seals of office (our fellow citizens, let us not forget, not some superclass) lack the humility to take the counselling appropriate to those in denial.
This discredited shower, and those who marched before flying their flag emblazoned with a pair of Fs, refuse to confront their titanic Fianna Failure.
It’s long past the hour they should call time on their miserable performance and give us, the people, fellow citizens, the constitutionally required (three byelections outstanding) opportunity to pass judgment upon them at the ballot box. Their refusal to do so confirms their contempt for us.
But isn’t our failure to rail against this injustice an indictment of our much-trumpeted sophistication as an electorate? What are we doing, putting up with this? – Yours, etc,