Sir, - Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern's "Way Forward" should not be dismissed out of hand. In bald, simple terms they are proposing a conditional IRA surrender - the condition being that unionists proceed apace with constructive, power-sharing administration. The fact that republicans are not hopping mad about the imminent demise of armed struggle is indeed a seismic transformation.
Unionists should take time to calmly reflect on how the republican position has changed over the past few years. They should recognise that republicans can no longer make political gain by killing people or destroying businesses. To ever again use physical force would mean immediate and world-wide loss of esteem and a move to full-scale war with no prisoners taken. Therefore, their only remaining political lever is the timing and modality of decommissioning. Are unionists perchance a little miffed at being out-manoeuvred by people they always assumed were not very good at politics? Just a thought.
It is important to fully comprehend that once republicans start decommissioning then they immediately forfeit their strongest leverage. Understandably, they will not do so until they sufficiently trust unionists. Bearing this in mind, unionists might like to ponder the balance between a prompt change in party policy to facilitate decommissioning - with concomitant diminution of republican leverage - or a very much more protracted haggle come September when the Patten Commission on Policing reports.
Given that all sides now accept the Good Friday Agreement contains an obligation to decommission, it would clearly be a breach of the Agreement if, by May 22nd, 2000, not a bullet or an ounce of Semtex had been disposed of. In that event the Agreement would no longer exist and it would then be reasonable to stop any further prisoner releases.
One final point: the Good Friday Agreement does not contain an obligation to like one's opponents. - Yours, etc., John Hoey,
Belfast 15.