President Musharraf is at the heart of a power struggle that threatens to ruin elections and give extremists free rein, writes Mary Fitzgeraldin Karachi.
So much had been riding on Benazir Bhutto. Despite the allegations of corruption that had sullied her name in the eyes of many Pakistanis, for her backers in Washington Bhutto was to be the great hope for a country they had grown increasingly worried about.
The plan went something like this: Bhutto would return to Pakistan to provide a thin veneer of respectability and legitimacy for an increasingly unpopular Pervez Musharraf as prime minister to his president. Both would steer the country on to a democratic course, and together they would tackle Pakistan's growing pockets of militant extremism. Now Bhutto lies in the family mausoleum in rural Sindh and few dare to predict with any certainty what happens next.
The cover of this week's edition of the Economist shows a grenade bearing the colour and insignia of Pakistan's national flag above a headline that reads: The world's most dangerous place. Pakistanis will bristle at the label, as they have several times before, but many will admit the future looks bleaker now than it has for some time.
Bhutto's assassination presents a serious quandary for those in Washington who clung to the belief that Musharraf, a crucial partner for the US in its so-called war on terror, could deliver in the end. The choice they face now is whether to pressure their discredited and isolated ally to resign, or allow him to drag Pakistan into further instability that would have huge regional, and indeed, international implications.
By continuing to support Musharraf, the US and its allies "might not just lose the battle for Pakistani hearts and minds, they also could be faced with the nightmare prospect of a nuclear-armed, Muslim-majority country of 165 million descending into violent internal conflict from which only extremist forces would stand to gain", the International Crisis Group warned in a report published this week.
Musharraf and his government have failed to counter suspicions that elements within the military or intelligences services may have been involved in Bhutto's assassination at an election rally in Rawalpindi, headquarters of Pakistan's army, and the retired general's grip on power now appears more tenuous than ever.
The power struggle between Musharraf and Pakistan's chief justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, the state of emergency imposed in November, Bhutto's murder and now a controversial delay in elections first scheduled for next week have all contributed to an irreversible fraying of the president's authority and credibility.
But those who are reluctant to abandon Musharraf argue that no opposition leader has the political nous, broad political support, and the all-important backing of the army necessary to preside over a country with innumerable faultlines. Apart from tensions between liberal and conservative or secular and Islamist, Pakistan barely manages to contain its other fractures: the sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia; ethnic rivalries between Punjabis, Sindhis, Pashtuns and mohajirs - Urdu-speaking Muslims who fled from India after the 1947 partition; the nationalist rebellion in Baluchistan; and the threat from the so-called Pakistani Taliban, militants from the tribal areas who have gained in strength and ambition in recent years.
Bhutto's killing has left her Pakistan People's Party reeling and in danger of collapse. Arguably the party that commands most popular support in the country, it is now led by Bhutto's widely disliked widower Asif Ali Zardari, and her son, a teenager who has spent most of his life outside Pakistan. While it is expected the PPP will garner a considerable sympathy vote in next month's polls, many observers believe that once the elections are over cracks will appear within the party over the newly appointed leadership.
The other major mainstream party is that led by Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister whose party appeals to the conservative Punjabi middle classes. Since returning to Pakistan from exile in November, Sharif had positioned himself as a more vocal opponent to Musharraf than Bhutto was, a strategy that had worked in his favour with opinion polls showing support for his PML-N party had increased. But Sharif is a controversial figure for many, not least for the ongoing corruption charges against him. Washington, meanwhile, has shown little interest, wary of his Saudi links and suspicious of his cosying up to Islamists in the past.
The other contenders are a mixed bag comprising the pro-Musharraf PML-Q; the Islamist factions which have never won more than 10 per cent of the popular vote; and assorted regional and ethnic based parties whose appeal has failed to move beyond their limited constituencies.
It is impossible to speak of politics in Pakistan without factoring in the all-powerful military. The army has seized power four times since Pakistan was established, ruling for more than half of the country's 60 years of existence. Under Musharraf's regime, the military has extended its reach beyond government to the private sector, consolidating its hold on the country by buying up land, businesses and factories.
Many argue that if Musharraf resigns soon, people would be more confident that the elections, now delayed until February 18th, would be free and fair and produce a national unity government that could nudge Pakistan towards civilian rule.
Others are not so sure, pointing out that Musharraf is not the only obstacle to free and fair elections.
The postponement of the polls by six weeks has been interpreted by opposition parties as part of a plan to rig the results.
Before the delay was announced, senior members of Bhutto's PPP claimed she intended to brief US politicians about an alleged election rigging plot orchestrated by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency on the day she was killed. The ISI played a significant role in creating the Taliban in the 1990s, and is still riddled with fundamentalist sympathisers. Many suspect these elements, working in cahoots with Taliban and possibly al-Qaeda linked militants, had a hand in Bhutto's assassination.
There are other worries.
Many fear the violence that swept the country following Bhutto's murder may erupt again in the next weeks, giving the army an excuse to impose another state of emergency and perhaps scuppering chances for credible elections anytime soon.
Meanwhile, the Bush administration has shown little sign that it is prepared to cast Musharraf aside. Three days after Bhutto was buried, the US announced the approval of a sale of F-16 fighter aircraft to Pakistan. For now, it appears there will be little change in what many Pakistanis call the "three As", joking that the "Allah, Army and America" triumvirate forms what amounts to a national stranglehold.
But concern about Pakistan's instability is not just confined within its borders. It has major implications for its neighbours and for the wider world. The second most populous Muslim nation is where al-Qaeda leaders including Osama bin Laden hide out in remote tribal borderlands. Almost every terrorist plot uncovered in Europe since 9/11 has been traced, in some shape or form, back to Pakistan.
Extremism has grown under Musharraf - suicide bombings have become all too familiar in Pakistan's cities and towns, killing hundreds in the past year.
The tribal areas have come under the sway of militants committed to establishing what they believe will be the foundation stones of a global Islamic caliphate based on a radical interpretation of Islam.
Instead of being part of the solution in the battle against extremism, many have believed for some time that Musharraf had become part of the problem.
The question now, as Pakistan faces into one of the most crucial years of its existence, is whether its moderate majority will finally be allowed to chart their country's course through the ballot box.