OPINION: Fianna Fáil faces trouble over Nama, but the treaty being passed would strengthen them
T HE SENSE of mild relief that emanated from Fianna Fáil after Brian Lenihan unveiled the detail of his National Asset Management Agency (Nama) plan on Wednesday has been replaced with a vague sense of anxiety that the Green Party may not be as inclined to hang on to office, come what may, as most of their Coalition colleagues had assumed.
On the positive side for the Coalition, Lenihan spoke well in the Dáil and no obvious blunder has emerged to undermine the credibility of the Nama enterprise. The mindless barracking from the Opposition benches during Lenihan’s televised speech did nothing for the credibility of their case that the whole project is deeply flawed.
As far as the Government’s future is concerned, the shouting and roaring from the Opposition is irrelevant. The important factor is that the Green Party is still pressing for amendments designed to change the way the property market will work in the future.
The surge in the share price of the two major banks immediately after the details of Nama were announced will have done nothing to encourage Green Party members to support the plan at a convention in a few weeks which will also decide on whether the party should continue in Government.
Ironically, the speculators who piled into bank shares to make a quick killing have fuelled the view Nama is designed in the interests of the banks rather than the taxpayer. That could, perversely, end up undermining Nama and the value of bank shares.
When it came to his turn to address the Dáil on Thursday, Green Party leader John Gormley stressed that unless Nama is approved by his party members, along with a new programme for government, he will have to pull out of Coalition. He went on radio to repeat that view and is clearly sending a message to his Coalition colleagues.
So far, most Fianna Fáil and Opposition TDs are taking Gormley’s intervention with a grain of salt. They remain convinced the Greens are playing for leverage in the review process, along with a bit of handy publicity.
It may well turn out like that, but there is a lot that could go wrong, considering that two-thirds of the party members will have to back the outcome of the review for the Coalition to remain in office. If the members are disgruntled about Nama, it could well feed into a negative vote on the review.
The two Cabinet Green Ministers have put themselves into a position where they will have to do more than get Fianna Fáil to agree to a bit of window-dressing on Nama. They will have to get serious concessions on both issues that can be presented as real changes in the way Irish politics works.
Everything hinges on what the Green bottom line is. The six TDs know they are going to be asked to agree to a budget in December that will be so severe it could ultimately destroy the party. If they want a way out before that, Nama would provide an ideal platform, given the party’s record on planning and development. Triggering an early election would be extremely risky, but might be a better option than extinction.
On the Fianna Fáil side, there is also a view, articulated in public by Jim McDaid, that bad and all as an early election would be, it might be better than staying in office to ram through not just one, but two or three savage budgets.
One way or another, FF TDs are cautiously optimistic the Lisbon referendum will be carried on October 2nd and that such an outcome will change the political atmosphere. While a No vote would almost certainly mark the end for Brian Cowen, and probably for his Government, a Yes vote would come as a huge relief to him. The first referendum defeat has contributed to the pall of gloom that has blighted his tenure. If there is a Yes vote, Cowen can at least go back to the European Council in the knowledge the country’s future has been rescued from the abyss. That may enable him to face into domestic political decision-making with a clearer focus.
As with the Greens, the first thing he has to decide is whether the attractions of staying in office are enough to force him to make the kind of compromises necessary to keep the Coalition afloat. Linked to that is the question of whether he regards an early election as something to be avoided at all costs.
A Cowen emboldened by a Lisbon victory might decide to play hardball with the Greens on Nama or the review of the programme for government, regardless of the dangers of a November election. The obvious downside of an early election is that Fianna Fáil would lose office and that, in turn, would almost certainly see Cowen’s departure from the leadership.
The upside, from a party point of view, is that an election in November on the issue of broad budgetary strategy, rather than one on the details of a hairshirt budget, might enable Fianna Fáil to survive as a viable opposition with a realistic prospect of just one term in the wilderness. After one and probably two swingeing budgets, a complete meltdown of the party is possible.
Some senior Fianna Fáil people have begun to talk in valedictory terms about their 12 years in power, as if they are resigned to an early departure. Some of them believe an early election might provide a Dunkirk-style opportunity for an orderly retreat to opposition, rather than face encirclement and potential destruction in a year or two.
It is interesting to note that the date for the Green convention is not set in stone for October 10th as had been widely assumed, just as there is still no date for a vote on the second stage of the Nama Bill. It seems that all options are being left open for the aftermath of the Lisbon referendum.