The inaugural flight of the Airbus A380 is a shot in the arm for the European aviation industry and a shot across the bows of its great US rival, Boeing. It is an aircraft which represents possibly the greatest commercial risk in the history of aviation with €12 billion already spent and entry to service still more than a year away.
The size of the double-deck carrier is enormous. The Boeing 747, better known as the Jumbo Jet, can carry up to 413 passengers. The A380 which flew yesterday can carry 555 passengers and can be adapted to fly a maximum of 840. It has the potential to transform air travel in the same way that the 747 did when it was launched 35 years ago.
Airbus has already received firm orders for 154 aircraft (at an average price of $285 million each) but some of the bigger airlines such as British Airways and Cathay Pacific have yet to be convinced. The choice of aircraft is a critical factor in the profitability of an airline and the question is whether the Airbus perspective of how air travel will develop is the right one.
Boeing takes the view that the growth in long-haul travel will be on a point-to-point basis; that is that passengers will want to fly directly to their business or holiday destination and, because many airports of all sizes are served, aircraft size will remain modest.
Airbus, on the other hand, believes that large aircraft will fly into a number of large "hub" airports and passengers will then fly on to smaller "spoke" airports. Dublin airport, for all its passengers and congestion, is likely to be a spoke. There are no 747s flying into Dublin on a scheduled service and there are no plans to lengthen the runway to cope with the A380.
As with all airline decisions however, the key factor may not be what passengers want but what will generate the greatest profit for carriers. The aviation industry is confident that a sizeable increase in long-haul travel is imminent if airlines can reduce ticket prices (and hence costs) in the same way that Ryanair and others have managed on short-haul routes.
The Airbus promises significantly lower operating costs. Boeing's 747 can break even with 290 passengers, the A380 with 323. But the A380 which flew yesterday can carry 232 more than its break-even level and, in later models, the aircraft will accommodate 523 more than break-even point.
Airbus concedes that travellers prefer to fly direct but it believes that hub-and-spoke will win out because it will be cheaper. In addition, airlines operating the A380, which has 50 per cent more floor space than the 747, can choose to sacrifice seating capacity and offer passengers beauty parlours, bars and casinos. Passengers who aspire to greater comfort may be tempted.
Pioneering air travel is fraught with risk. The Anglo-French Concorde was the finest technological advance in civil aircraft and yet it was a commercial flop. Hopefully, the A380 will be a commercial success and will provide passengers with greater choice. The size and capacity of the giant sky carrier is a sight to behold.