The Irish electorate's attitudes towards the Kosovo crisis and European security issues are revealed clearly in today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll findings. The most decisive finding is that an overwhelming majority supports holding a referendum on the Government's proposal to join the NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace programme of military co-operation in Europe. This is so despite the fact that a somewhat smaller majority favours joining PfP. It is a signal that security and defence issues have become more important for the electorate as a result of war in the Balkans.
Opinion is marginally in favour of the NATO military actions in Serbia, but there is also strong opposition. When considered together with attitudes to using ground forces in Kosovo this division of opinion is consistent. But it would probably shift more decisively in favour of intervention when and if a United Nations mandate were to be secured - as is currently the direction of international diplomacy. The Government's decision to endorse European Union statements that the NATO bombing campaign is "necessary and warranted" enjoys majority support among Fianna Fail and Fine Gael voters. But other parties are equally divided and there is a notable gender gap, with women much more opposed than men to the current NATO military action.
The voters are more generous than the Government in their readiness to accommodate Kosovar refugees in Ireland, with a clear majority of 57 per cent supporting a greater number than the 1,000 limit mentioned last Monday by the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue. This was an unfortunate, ill-timed and ill-advised statement as the first Kosovar victims of ethnic cleansing arrived here. An Ireland prosperous and in need of workers - as revealed in yesterday's Quarterly National Household survey - can afford to extend a generous welcome to them, and to other people seeking asylum.
The Government has argued that there is no need for a referendum on joining PfP, following legal advice from the Attorney General, Mr David Byrne. It is not a military alliance, membership is based on a flexible formula and no treaty-like commitments are entailed in membership. In normal circumstances this makes good sense politically as well as legally. But the electorate - including Fianna Fail supporters - is strongly in favour of holding a referendum on the question. This is not surprising in view, first, of that party's U-turn on the matter from before the June 1997 general election when it called for a referendum and, second, of the changed political and European security context in which the issue of joining PfP is now being debated.
Politically there is a strong case for holding a referendum. A campaign would allow the Government to argue in favour of joining in the context of the need to participate fully in the rapidly developing European debate on security arising from the Kosovo crisis. A decisive vote in favour, as is indicated by this poll, would give the Government confidence to engage fully in this debate. It would give voters confidence that any resulting change of policy affecting Ireland's military neutrality in coming years would also be put to the electorate in a referendum.