Any reduction in the level of crime in our society is positive news. But the report produced yesterday by the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, must be viewed in the context of crime statistics which worsened dramatically during the previous two years.
A 7 per cent fall in the incidence of "headline crime" for the first six months of this year must be balanced against a rise of 22 per cent in the number of those same crimes last year.
Within those same figures for 2002, the number of serious assaults and sexual assaults rose by about 300 per cent over a two-year period. Mr McDowell emphasised the need for caution and analysis in interpreting the new figures. He was well advised to do so. But, at the same time, the Minister for Justice sought to extract political advantage from the downward trend that has begun to emerge. In doing so, he should be wary that the six-month improvement in the incidence of "headline crime" is not the equivalent of the "dead cat bounce" that sometimes occurs in a falling stock market.
The publication of crime statistics has always been something of a political game. When the figures are positive, they are proudly presented by the minister concerned. When they are sharply negative, they are withheld for as long as possible and sometimes manipulated so as to minimise their public impact. In treating statistics in this way, the minister and the Garda Síochána share a common interest in showing that crime is under control.
Crime statistics have been notoriously unreliable. Two years ago, it was estimated that three-quarters of all crimes committed in the State were not reported to the Garda and did not appear in official statistics. Then, after the introduction of a new Pulse computer system for recording crime in 2000, the figures increased dramatically. The new methodology for recording crime almost certainly influenced the figures because the implied breakdown in law and order was not reflected within society. At that time, the National Crime Council urged that research be carried out in this area and that national crime victimisation studies be conducted. It expressed reservations about the way Garda figures were compiled and recommended that an independent expert group should examine the reliability and consistency of the available statistics.
Since then, progress has been made. The first crime victimisation study will be undertaken next year. And an independent expert group began examining crime statistics some months ago. This kind of statistical research and analysis is absolutely essential in reassuring members of the public who may have unrealistic expectations of becoming victims of crime. It is also vital information for any government in planning the development of a modern police force and ensuring value for money. The most recent Garda statistics are positive. But they provide no reason for rejoicing, given the negative background against which they must be judged.