ANALYSIS:While both Kenny and Bruton played excellent politics yesterday, the leader may still be doomed if he wins by just a tiny margin
THE BATTLE for the right to lead Fine Gael is so close that both factions can feel the other side breathing down their necks.
When the figures were totted up among the 70 eligible votes last night, it seemed 34 were siding with the Enda Kenny camp and 32 with Richard Bruton.
And then there were four parliamentary party members who, as of last night, would not divulge their intentions to anybody.
On the face of it, it looks like Enda Kenny was within inches of reaching the magical 36 votes. But yesterday, the momentum shifted firmly towards the Bruton side for the first time since the contest began. All will be won or lost at today’s parliamentary party meeting by a handful of votes.
Since the weekend, Kenny had shown a hitherto hidden steely side to his character and mounted an abrasive gloves-off defence of his leadership. There was a sense that his forceful tactics – the sacking of Bruton and the shutting down of this week’s frontbench meeting – had given him the upper hand for the first five days.
But yesterday it was Bruton and his supporters who seized control of the agenda with some clever and highly effective choreography. A number of influential moderate backbenchers declared for Bruton – the likes of Joe McHugh and Michael D’Arcy.
Just before lunchtime, Kieran O’Donnell, who Kenny appointed only last Monday as temporary finance spokesman, declared for Bruton. In a way that should not be surprising. He has been Robin to Bruton’s Batman since his election in 2007. Still, the optics looked bad.
And then in mid-afternoon there was one of the pivotal moments of the contest. Justice spokesman Charlie Flanagan, who pledged public support for Kenny at the weekend, announced in a statement that he had shifted allegiance and would now support Bruton.
The Kenny camp tried to dampen down the news. O’Donnell was always a Brutonite, they claimed. And they had written Flanagan out of the equation since his Churchillian comments on Tuesday that were very decisive about his need to go for lunch but a little more ambiguous about his support for Kenny.
But a setback it definitely was. There were expectations when Bruton emerged on the plinth at 5.30pm that he would declare the contest over and call for Kenny’s resignation. But his statement fell short of that, declaring confidence that he would win.
But you would underestimate at your peril the capacity for wiliness of Kenny’s chief strategist Phil Hogan. Within 10 minutes, he led a total of 20 parliamentarians on to the plinth, all of whom had pledged support for Kenny.
The show of strength might not have fully neutralised the damage but an uber-confident Hogan declared that they now had the numbers.
The contingent of 20 included Catherine Byrne from Dublin South Central and Bernard Durkan from Kildare North, neither of whom had declared publicly.
When you added in Kenny, the four MEPs, Alan Shatter, Bernard Allen, Ciaran Cannon, Paul Connaughton, James Bannon, Paudie Coffey and Dan Neville, it came to 32. And the Kenny camp was also confident that undeclared parliamentarians – Senator Jerry Buttimer, Padraic McCormack, Senator Paul Coghlan and possibly Terence Flanagan – would also back Enda. That would give him the slightest possible victory.
Equally, the Bruton camp could count to 30 definites and make a justifiable claim to
many of the 10 TDs and Senators who remained uncommitted as of yesterday morning.
On paper at teatime yesterday it looked like the Kenny camp still held the advantage.
But Vulcan logic and calculus don’t get you very far in Irish politics.
There were a number of other important if more ethereal factors that suggested that the contest was tilting ever so slightly in Bruton’s direction.
Privately, both sides claimed they had a majority last night. Equally, they admitted it would not be a whacking great one, but rather a margin of two or three.
The first factor is one that might swing it in Bruton’s favour. It’s the fact that the contest will be settled by secret ballot. There were suggestions that a number who said they would vote for Kenny would vote for Bruton despite public pledges to the contrary. That was said of the Mayo contingent who scoffed at the notion – Michael Ring said he had heard the rumour and would publicly show people his ballot before casting it. It was also said of a Senator who came out backing Kenny in the local media.
And there are others too, not Janus-faced in intention, who may be looking at how close the contest is and worrying about the future of the party if Kenny wins it only by a whisker. A senior and respected figure in the party – who has deliberately stood apart from the debate – said that Bruton needed only to win by one vote, but if Kenny won by one vote, he was doomed.
With a majority of his front bench (11 out of 19) having no confidence in his leadership, he would be leading a deeply divided party and selecting a front bench shorn of some of Fine Gael’s greatest talents. His task would be like that of Justin McCarthy with the Limerick senior hurling team: impossible. There would be another heave in a year. That is why Kenny needs a more solid margin and, with less confidence that he will get that, well-intentioned supporters might secretly ebb away.
The second factor, which can work either way, is that the outcome may be determined by what happens today. The speeches and exchanges at the meeting will be crucial and may sway allegiances. In 1994, John Bruton was faced with a challenge headed by Michael Noonan and went into a similar meeting with no guarantee that he had a majority on his side. He gave a barnstorming speech that persuaded a crucial handful to back his leadership. He survived.
Both sides acknowledged the importance of the set piece from both Kenny and Richard Bruton today.
Throughout the day yesterday, the quietest place to be was in the Dáil chamber. The action was happening elsewhere, in party rooms and on the plinth. Bruton, Kenny and their teams shored up support, and concentrated on the small number who could go either way. Both sides were claiming Terence Flanagan and Senator Fidelma Healy Eames.
Seymour Crawford spoke to Kenny last night but did not declare his intention. The intentions of Noel Coonan and Senator Paul Coghlan remained unknown.
The campaign has been frenetic and unexpectedly bitter. Some of Kenny’s supporters have portrayed it as a battle between the posh urban “boarding school” crowd and the rural “vocational school” crowd. The names lined up on either side of the divide don’t really bear that out, but Bruton’s team does have a slightly more “aristocratic” bent to it.
There was a lot of spin and counter-spin yesterday. Lucinda Creighton claimed that Kenny emissaries were offering cabinet positions in exchange for votes. Hogan later dismissed that assertion as a “lie”. There was also a rumour circulating that Simon Coveney would stand against Bruton – a decision that would lead to months of delay. But Coveney dismissed it point blank.
But both sides were conscious that it can’t get out of hand. “We are controlling it, not getting involved in public scraps,” said a senior figure on one side. “We do not want a very divided party. It’s bad enough as it is already.”
And that is the one thing that can be said with certainty about the whole affair – that it has been a bad, bad week for Fine Gael.
Harry McGee is Political Correspondent