TWO WEEKS AFTER Zimbabwe's presidential elections no results have yet been published. The Movement for Democratic Change led by Morgan Tsvangarai claims to have won the elections and is refusing to stand in any run-off. Instead it has called a general strike in protest and demanded that the courts force publication of the results.
It wants today's meeting of the regional South African Development Community (SADC) in Zambia to put pressure on Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF party to accept that it was defeated and abandon the gathering repression against its opponents. But Mr Mugabe's decision not to attend the summit and yesterday's ban on demonstrations indicate that the country is poised on the brink of renewed violence.
It has been a traumatic time for Zimbabwe's voters, coming on top of the spiralling economic crisis they have gone through, with chronic shortages of food, up to one- quarter of the population emigrating, 80 per cent unemployment and 100,000 per cent inflation. In these circumstances the elections were an extraordinarily courageous rejection of Mr Mugabe's regime - and all the more surprising for their relative openness. The ruling Zanu-PF party was clearly stunned by the results, in which it has already been declared that it lost the parliamentary elections to the MDC. After a period of uncertainty and internal debate about whether to accept defeat it seems that the hardliners have won the argument and have resolved to go on the offensive. Hence the increasingly vicious attacks on MDC activists in recent days, combined with Zanu-PF taunts that the party is afraid to fight a run-off.
If it comes down to an outright confrontation the immediate balance of forces would seem to favour the regime. It still has the army and police on its side, as well as the elementary advantages of pay, food and organisation for its political cadres. But they are in fact significantly weaker as a result of this electoral shock. Popular anger over the economic collapse could still come through on the streets if the electoral road for change has been denied, and it will not be possible to seal the country off from international reportage.
The Zimbabwean people are deserving of maximum international support in these testing times. It must come primarily and certainly initially from neighbouring states, of which South Africa is by far the most important. President Thabo Mbeki has systematically counselled quiet diplomacy as the best way to approach the issue. He tried to ensure that these elections would be fairly conducted, which had a definite effect. Now that they are being stolen by a discredited regime it is surely time for him to give a lead to the SADC meeting today by calling for the results to be declared and respected. Other states would follow him if he does so. But it will be more difficult for the summit to take such a lead without Mr Mugabe being present.
On a wider canvas this is an important moment for African democracy which needs real solidarity. A similar dispute over Kenya's election is still unresolved, despite intensive international efforts to mediate a compromise.