Merkel moves closer to power

She will have a few weeks to wait yet but with yesterday's agreement between Germany's Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and Social…

She will have a few weeks to wait yet but with yesterday's agreement between Germany's Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD) on the division of ministerial responsibility, the CDU's Angela Merkel now appears almost certain to be heading for the chancellery in Berlin.

The hope is that negotiations over a detailed plan for government will be completed by November 12th when the country's second grand coalition since the second World War will be able to take office. Then Germany will get its first woman chancellor and, to boot, will mark symbolically the political unification of the state with its first chancellor from the old East Germany.

Cohabitation, as the French call it, will not be easy after an abrasive election. The Social Democrats have driven a hard bargain, insisting on eight cabinet positions to balance exactly the CDU/CSU's numbers. In the key areas of foreign and economic/finance policy, socialists will effectively shadow the chancellor, traditionally heavily involved in the country's diplomacy, and her economics minister, the right-wing leader of her Bavarian sister-party the CSU, Edmund Stoiber. Similarly in the justice and interior portfolios.

Yet, although from different political families, Germany's two largest parties are very much part of a post-war tradition which values social dialogue and consensus, a strong welfare safety net, and both are passionately pro-European. Ms Merkel insisted yesterday that "there is no alternative to a reform course" for Germany and, in truth, a belief in the need to get to grips with the country's inflexible labour and costly tax, health and pensions systems is broadly common ground. It is a road the SPD has already started down.

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A Social Democrat presence in government is more likely to affect its pace than overall direction. In the words of one German commentator, what we can expect to see is a degree of continuity: forward movement, but a bit like a car driving with its handbrake on. SPD sources have let it be known that unions will retain the right to negotiate sector-wide wage deals under a new government, a right Merkel opposes. The SPD is also unlikely to back her idea to increase VAT to pay for cuts in payroll costs.

On foreign policy, an accommodation is also possible. The extremely prolonged nature, for example, of the EU Turkish accession negotiations will mean Merkel's opposition can be finessed as footdragging without halting the process. A rapprochement with the US, effectively reversing Chancellor Schröder's rejection of President Bush's Iraq policy, can be presented as a natural response to a political situation that has moved on.

Perhaps the biggest change on the German scene will be the eclipse of the redoubtable war-horse Schröder himself after seven years at the helm. He will take part in the talks but is then believed unlikely to seek cabinet office. European politics will be poorer for his going.