The European Union's relations with Russia have deteriorated sharply in the last six months, a trend which seems set to continue after their troubled summit near the Volga resort of Samara last Friday.
They failed to make progress on an energy charter, the Russian ban on Polish meat exports or on the mooted partnership and co-operation agreement intended to regulate long-term economic relations. Instead political and human rights issues predominated in a public war of words.
Why this should be so merits close attention. The worsening tone raises questions about Russia's existing and likely future trajectory. The German EU presidency has hoped to find a way through difficulties in the relationship based on the need for engagement. Interdependence has been their watchword, in a vocabulary presuming joint willingness to pursue co-operation based on mutual interests. The sharp exchanges at Samara make this case questionable. At every point President Vladimir Putin challenged EU policy, whether on economic or political matters, on a seeming premise that their interests are not mutual but conflicting.
In post-summit comments Mr Putin and other Russian ministers and officials stressed that they still want to continue the relationship with the EU, including on energy security, visa regulations and cargo traffic. They say they will be ready to reopen negotiations on the partnership and co-operation agreement after Russia joins the World Trade Organisation. "We need each other, we are open for an honest dialogue between Russia and the EU," Mr Putin said. "It's totally wrong to say we couldn't agree on a single issue." EU leaders must now assess whether this period of deteriorating relations necessitates a new approach.
Mr Putin says the EU must sort out its own disunity before proper business can be done. He resents the EU's solidarity with Poland and the Baltic states in their confrontations with Russia over meat exports and the treatment of Russian minorities. There is a hankering for the geopolitical hegemony Moscow enjoyed in the Soviet era, an abrasive self-confidence born of Russia's energy strength and a fierce determination to create a more equal relationship with the EU and the US.
These mixed signals mean there is scope to continue the EU-Russian relationship. But it will now have to encompass a more serious concentration by the EU on solidarity with its post-Soviet member states, human rights and political freedoms, to balance the realism of economic interests and a better recognition of Russia's international role.