Moscow Shuffle

Mr Vladimir Putin's cabinet shuffle has sent a signal to the Russian people that he does not wish to be identified with "the …

Mr Vladimir Putin's cabinet shuffle has sent a signal to the Russian people that he does not wish to be identified with "the Family", the corrupt entourage which surrounded the former president, Mr Yeltsin. For this reason the sackings and demotions are probably of more significance than the promotion of the technocrat Mr Mikhail Kasyanov to the post of first deputy prime minister. Leaving the post which Mr Kasyanov will now occupy is Mr Nikolai Aksyonenko, widely regarded as the chief representative in cabinet of the billionaire businessman, media magnate and schemer, Mr Boris Berezovsky. Out too is Mr Pavel Borodin, the administrator of the Kremlin's bureaucracy who is under investigation on corruption charges in Russia and Switzerland.

Despite his current strong backing in the opinion polls Mr Putin has to be careful in treading the minefield of Russian politics. Moscow's religious claim to be Constantinople's successor looks pale indeed when compared to its Byzantine political heritage. There is still an election to be fought and once more the media, or more precisely the media magnates, will play their part. In the parliamentary elections last month Mr Berezovsky's media influence was used to Mr Putin's advantage when the non-communist opposition was subjected to a barrage of Soviet-style black propaganda on the nationwide ORT channel. Mr Vladimir Gusinsky, who owns the NTV channel, is already an opponent of Mr Putin's and a staunch supporter of Moscow's mayor, Mr Yuri Luzhkov. Mr Putin, for all his current popularity, cannot therefore afford to antagonise Mr Berezovsky completely.

The Chechen war has been the main source of Mr Putin's popularity. Every reported success from the front - and there have been many of them, whether real or invented - has boosted Mr Putin in the poll ratings. Every reported reverse will nibble away at the acting president's image as the type of strong man Russians want. There are already signs that this has begun to happen. Mr Putin's previous surefootedness has begun to desert him. He may not yet be sinking into the Chechen mire that engulfed so many of his predecessors in Russia's troubled history in that region. He has, however, begun to lose credibility.

When two generals were sacked and Russia's campaign ground to an unconvincing halt, Mr Putin lamely spoke of Russia having instituted a unilateral ceasefire to mark Christian and Muslim holidays. Now, temporarily at least, the tide of war has turned in the Chechens' favour. This was always a strong possibility. What is remarkable, however, is that these Russian reverses are being fully and widely reported in media which up to now were supine to the wishes of the Kremlin. Senior officers have joined ordinary soldiers and the Committees of Soldiers Mothers of Russia in stating that the official casualty statistics from Chechnya belong in the realm of fiction. The current adverse publicity may be merely a shot across Mr Putin's bows from the media oligarchy rather than an attempt to undermine him completely. It is a sign however that "the Family" is still alive and kicking.