The Government has made substantial progress towards reviving negotiations on a constitutional treaty for the European Union since it assumed the EU presidency last month.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern's meeting with Mr Silvio Berlusconi in Rome yesterday completes an intensive round of consultations with European leaders in which he has explored a potential deal. He now has a month to assess whether it is possible. He must also clear up as many of the 20 or so outstanding issues as he can before reporting progress to a summit in March.
When the inter-governmental conference on the issue collapsed in Brussels last December many commentators believed it would take at least a year to revive it. Mr Ahern was cautious about the prospects, not wanting to raise expectations which could not be met. But from the beginning of the presidency he has actively pursued a new compromise on the most important issue dividing the negotiators - how voting should be organised in an enlarged EU. He has convinced the other leaders it is better to reach an agreement sooner rather than later.
Mr Ahern has also set out his belief that the best formula for doing so is to accept the proposal supported by Germany, France and most other member-states, but rejected by Poland and Spain, by which a dual majority of the EU population and of its states would be necessary to pass legislation. A compromise would then be found by meeting its opponents half way on the precise population majority required and on the timing and manner of its implementation. It is a daring but shrewd strategy at this stage in the bargaining. It risks rejection by Poland and Spain, which want to retain the formula agreed in the Nice Treaty; but it tilts realistically towards Germany, as the most populous state with the greatest interest in making an enlarged EU work effectively.
Mr Ahern is hoping next week's meeting between German, French and British leaders will keep up the momentum, with Mr Tony Blair playing a constructive role in crafting a compromise. The German Chancellor Mr Schroder's statement in Dublin this week that it may be difficult to reach an agreement during this presidency is not seen as a backing away from his commitment to do so, but as a prudent warning. No one is saying the Government has been wrong to try so hard and most agree with Mr Ahern's assessment, reiterated in Rome yesterday, that forthcoming elections in Spain, Poland and for the European Parliament, the new EU budgetary proposals and other political developments will make it more difficult to reach agreement. The Polish Foreign Minister said yesterday that if progress is not made in the next few weeks it will not be possible for a long time.
If there are signs of such movement Mr Ahern would be able to report positively to the summit in March, reconvene the IGC in April and hope to wrap up the negotiations before the European elections in June. That is an ambitious strategy indeed. But it is well worth the hard work involved.