The Dublin visit by Mr Tony Blair, which begins this afternoon, is qualitatively different from the meetings which now take place as a matter of routine between Irish and British premiers. Mr Blair - who is accompanied by his wife, Mrs Cherie Blair - has a varied programme of engagements in the capital, of which the most significant will be an address to the joint Houses of the Oireachtas, the first by a British prime minister. This visit is aimed at bringing into focus the political accomplishments of the past year - as distinct from the obstacles which yet remain to be overcome. It is also aimed at stressing the commonality of interests which increasingly characterises relations between Ireland and Britain and, indeed, between Ireland North and South. Part of Mr Blair's programme will be concerned with educational linkages and opportunities for further co-operation between young people. Creating new political dialogue is important. But it will not endure or reach its potential if it is not matched by similar exchanges on the ground.
When Mr Blair's Oireachtas address was planned it was assumed that the new political structures provided for in the Belfast Agreement would be further advanced than they are. It was intended that by now a shadow executive would have been formed with agreed portfolios. That objective has foundered on the twin reefs of IRA obduracy on decommissioning and the realities of Mr David Trimble's political vulnerability. Nor is it expected that Mr Blair will be in a position on this visit to indicate any breakthrough on the decommissioning impasse. He is likely rather to point up progress on North-South structures and on the East-West council which will strengthen ties between the two islands.
An impressive checklist of positive developments can be put forward without great difficulty - and Mr Blair may do so when he speaks in Leinster House tomorrow. But the fact remains that without a functioning executive there is no participative democracy in the full sense. A vacuum exists and there should be no underestimation of the danger which accompanies that state. Neither government is likely to be complacent on this score and it is now believed that a period of several months is anticipated in which the shape and detail of future arrangements can be agreed - if not dropped into place. The concurrent expectation must be that the IRA then will move, in some degree, from its flat insistence that it will never decommission. All this envisages a delicate progression across treacherous ground. Potential booby-traps lie on all sides and the possibility cannot be ruled out that dissident paramilitary elements may, in the meantime, attempt further acts of violence. But Mr Blair - and his hosts, Mr Ahern and the Government - are entitled nonetheless to mark progress to date. Not many would have given odds, in November of last year, that 12 months on, the Belfast Agreement would be in place, supported by the votes of the people of Ireland, that Mr Trimble and Mr Seamus Mallon would be working in partnership and that work would be in train across a range of issues from prisoner releases to review of the criminal justice system. Mr Blair's visit can be viewed as a cautious celebration, not of a journey completed, but of a journey well begun.