Mr Trimble's Rubicon

The signs are that those who represent the various strands of Unionist thinking in Northern Ireland are feeling the weight of…

The signs are that those who represent the various strands of Unionist thinking in Northern Ireland are feeling the weight of the momentous decision which lies before them less than a month from now. On September 15th the multi-party talks resume at Stormont and those who present themselves will have an opportunity to participate in shaping their own political future. But if an agreement is reached it will be one which is founded on compromise, accommodation and a retreat from inherited certainties. These have hardly been the most familiar terms in the political vocabulary of the Unionist tradition.

Mr David Trimble's Ulster Unionists have embarked upon a highly-profiled process of consultation. They will shortly take the remarkable step of meeting the Catholic Archbishop of Armagh, Dr Sean Brady, for an exchange of views. If it shows nothing else it shows that Glengall Street is learning something about the art of public relations. Perhaps, indeed, last week's television encounter between Mr Ken Maginnis and Mr Martin McGuinness has shown that already. Unionists have gained no ground over the years through holding a stony silence, punctuated only by shouts of "not an inch" and "no surrender".

Mr Trimble and his colleagues are also talking to the business community which has a direct and measurable interest in political stability. There is little doubt that the great majority of those with an economic stake in Northern Ireland - whether large or small - urgently want the mainstream Unionist party in the talks and for a deal to be done with the SDLP. The UUP will also be sounding out other church leaders and the remarks of Archbishop Robin Eames at the weekend will be taken as strongly supportive of the party entering real dialogue at Stormont when the talks resume.

Conventional wisdom in the past was that the UUP could not afford to move swiftly for fear of losing ground to the more intransigent Democratic Unionists under Dr Paisley. And yet the fringe Loyalist groupings, the UDP and the PUP, seem capable of striking a more radical pose - in Unionist terms - by coming forward and seeking dialogue. The UDP has confirmed it will attend the talks and the PUP is considered likely to follow suit. The sands are shifting in rank-and-file unionist thinking and Mr Trimble and his senior colleagues must feel more confident about dialogue. And if the definition of a good newspaper is that of a community talking to itself, the strong urgings in favour of participation in the process from the traditionally-unionist News Letter of Belfast must also be significant. Yet it is easy for those who live outside Northern Ireland to underestimate the obstacles and threats which moderate unionists must contend with if they are to face into full dialogue. Mr Trimble has threats at his back from within his own party. And there are senior figures among the broader Unionist community who can strike a conciliatory pose for the moment, only to swing back to traditional, tribal logic at the first encounter with the not-an-inch brigade. Those who have sought to bring Unionism into the arena of dialogue have been stabbed in the back before.

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Mr Trimble in particular faces a period of crucial decision-making over the coming weeks. If he has the courage, the confidence and the negotiating skills he can have a great prize within his grasp; the achievement of an agreed settlement, securing both his own people's traditions and culture and satisfying the great majority of the nationalist people as well. The alternative is to retreat. Winston Churchill said that faced with the option of mounting the scaffold or charging a line of bayonets he would choose the latter. Mr Trimble's choice is hardly that stark. But he is approaching a political Rubicon.