Musical Chairs In Moscow

It is a measure of the desperation of President Yeltsin that he has found it necessary to sack his entire government for a second…

It is a measure of the desperation of President Yeltsin that he has found it necessary to sack his entire government for a second time within four months. It is a U-turn of extraordinary daring, made by a man who is not just on the ropes but falling to the canvas. The dismaying truth about the sacking however is that Mr Yeltsin's primary motivation is to save the last two years of his presidency (at whatever cost) and not to restore health to the bankrupt Russian economy. Mr Yeltsin has bought more time, but there may be a heavy price to pay.

There will be few tears shed for the dismissed prime minister, Mr Sergei Kiriyenko. When he was appointed in April the Russian economy was in relatively good shape. The rouble was steady, foreign investment was on the rise and inflation was under control; after nine years of decline there were forecasts of growth, albeit marginal. But the rouble, while steady, was overvalued and Mr Kiriyenko refused to accept the inevitability of devaluation (or was not allowed to by Mr Yeltsin) until billions of IMF loans had been wasted in the rouble's defence.

Mr Kiriyenko's original policies had their merits. He was an advocate of radical reform of the tax system, the banking system and the bureaucracy. If this meant incurring the wrath of the business tycoons who control so much of the political process, then so be it. Unfortunately, Mr Kiriyenko had neither the toughness nor the guile to get the better of the system. His programme was largely ignored by the parliament (as were the emergency measures recommended by the IMF) and last week's financial package made it clear that further economic reform had been ruled out.

Waving the scalp of Mr Kiriyenko, the Lower House of Parliament, the Duma, will now gird itself for a struggle with the Prime Minister-designate, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin. This, however, will be more of a contest of equals. Mr Chernomyrdin is no 36-year-old political novice like his predecessor. He is a 60-year-old former boss of the gas industry, Prime Minister for nearly six years until last April and leader of the second-largest party in the Duma.

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Mr Chernomyrdin can be guaranteed to form a more broadly-based government. A declared candidate for the presidential election in two years' time, he spent his four months in the wilderness building up his ties with parliamentary and regional leaders. Mr Chernomyrdin is talking tough at the moment. He has told the Duma that it must first confirm his appointment, and only then will he make public his policies and cabinet appointments, but clearly a deal has been done. The new government will be a coalition which will represent most of the power blocs in the Duma.

And that might be its downfall. If Mr Chernomyrdin's second administration is to succeed it will have to be resolute in tackling corruption, in closing down failed banks and, above all, in collecting taxes. But these measures will run up against stiff resistence and Mr Chernomyrdin, with his eye on the presidential election, may opt to throw money at his problems and make the rouble printing presses work overtime - even if it means letting inflation rip. If the Russian economy descends into chaos (a condition it is not far removed from at present) then there is a frightening prospect of a slide towards nationalism and fascism with nuclear weapons aplenty should disputes turn nasty. Mr Chernomyrdin has the fate of a great country in his hands.