Government satisfaction has increased by 10 points, to 65 per cent, in the aftermath of the Budget and in a climate that offers the prospect of real political progress on Northern Ireland. But both Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats will be deeply disappointed that the largest income-tax give-away Budget ever, of £517m, has had only a marginal impact on party political support. Fianna Fail support actually declined by a single point, to 50 per cent, over the past two months while the Progressive Democrats added a single point to 3 per cent.
The largely neutral response from the electorate may be accounted for by the belief, held by three-quarters of voters, that high income earners will benefit most from the Budget. One in ten of those questioned believed that middle-income earners would do best, while 6 per cent took the view that low income people were the main beneficiaries. The failure of the tax cuts to generate a positive public response because of their perceived lack of equity did not, however, lead on to the creation of a negative reaction. This is probably explained by the fact that 89 per cent of those questioned in the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll believed their personal financial circumstances would either remain unchanged, or improve, as a result of decisions taken by the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy.
The Tanaiste, Ms Harney, will be disappointed by the failure of her party to make a significant advance on the basis of a Budget which reflected, to a large extent, the tax cutting policies espoused by the Progressive Democrats. Her influence, and that of her parliamentary colleagues, on the Budget was publicly recognised in the media, but the party still languishes at a lower level of support than it secured in last June's general election. On the positive side, however, the party has doubled its support amongst middle class voters over the past two months - from 3 to 6 per cent - and it has also increased its base in Dublin.
By contrast, Fianna Fail's support actually fell by a single point, to 50 per cent. But this figure must be viewed in the light of the 39 per cent the party won in last June's general election. The higher vote is traditionally regarded as mid-term, "soft" support, which could erode rapidly. But the failure of the Budget to massage the figure upwards will be a cause for concern. Equally worrying for Fianna Fail will be the finding that the public does not believe it has delivered on its pre-election promise to substantially reduce the level of crime. Almost three-quarters of those surveyed - 73 per cent - felt that crime levels had not fallen and this was particularly marked in Leinster and in Connacht/ Ulster.
The absence of any immediate threat to the Government and the "feel-good factor" generated by a booming economy will provide time and space in which the Government may address these issues. For, in spite of some warning signs, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, have reasons for cautious optimism in the run-in to Christmas. They can hope the Government's impressive satisfaction rating - the highest in recent years at 65 per cent - will gradually translate into greater support for their parties. In that regard, the recovery of their personal satisfaction ratings from the sharp drops they experienced during the course of the recent presidential election campaign may be a harbinger of things to come.