ANALYSIS:Relations with Baghdad can be improved if new Kurdish deputies take a more flexible stance
IN A shock reversal of political fortunes, a new party has emerged from Saturday’s parliamentary election as the first credible opposition to the traditional ruling parties in Iraq’s Kurdish region.
If early results are borne out, Gorran – meaning “Change”, could be on the way to breaking the grip of feudal leaders on the autonomous region. A senior Gorran official said the party won 28 seats, 19 in Sulaimaniyah and nine in Irbil, of 100 unallocated seats. A communist-Muslim fundamentalist list could secure 17 seats.
This amounts to a major upset for the joint list formed by the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), led by Massoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), headed by Jalal Talabani.
They have dominated the Iraqi Kurdish political scene for five decades, as mountain guerrillas fighting the Iraqi army and as politicians on the Baghdad scene. Unofficial tallies show the bloc won 55 seats, as compared to 78 in the 2005 election.
In the presidential contest, unofficial returns indicate that Barzani, the KDP-PUK candidate and sitting regional president, is losing in Sulaimaniyah province to London-based university professor Kamal Miraudly, an independent. Barzani is said to be ahead in Irbil and Dohuk provinces, KDP strongholds.
Gorran, founded three years ago by Nawshiran Mustafa, a guerrilla commander, wealthy businessman and former PUK deputy head, mounted a US-style campaign for parliament and did not contest the presidency.
Gorran set up radio and TV stations and published a weekly newspaper in Sulaimaniyah, the PUK base. The party’s focus was corruption, nepotism, mismanagement and soaring unemployment. A high turnout of nearly 80 per cent of the region’s 2.5 million voters suggests that the public was energised by the rise of a new force to challenge the traditional leadership.
Gorran’s strong showing is likely to weaken not only the PUK, but also the KDP, which has been diminished along with its partner. To rule, the bloc may have to depend on the backing of the communist-fundamentalist alliance or the Turkomen and Christian holders of 11 additional seats allocated to minorities.
The defeat in Sulaimaniyah of the PUK could mean the KDP will name a regional premier from its ranks rather than accept PUK nominee Barham Saleh. The result could reduce the influence in Baghdad of Talabani, Iraq’s president who, with Sunni and Shia deputies, must approve legislation and appointments.
Since Gorran plans to field candidates in January’s national parliamentary election, new Kurdish faces with new agendas could represent the Kurds in the capital, ending dictation to the centre of the KDP-PUK bloc.
Relations with Baghdad could be smoothed if the new regional parliament and Kurdish deputies in the next national assembly adopt a more flexible stand than the KDP-PUK bloc on territorial disputes. The bloc has risked civil war with Baghdad, Iraqi Arabs and ethnic Turks by demanding annexation of Kirkuk, its oil fields and wide swathes of territory in Diyala and Nineveh provinces.