The plans for a peaceful democratic transition from one presidential regime to another in Nigeria have been badly undone by a fraudulent poll. International and domestic election observers agree this is so and have called for urgent remedial action to restore electoral credibility.
Although outgoing president Olusegun Obasanjo has admitted the elections were flawed by ballot stuffing, violence and logistical failures, there is little prospect that Mr Umaru Yar'Adua, his selected successor who has been proclaimed the victor with 70 per cent of the votes, will be deprived of office as a result.
This is a sad blow for Africa's largest and richest state. It has been notoriously prone to military intervention in politics since gaining independence in the 1960s, but has gradually been weaning itself off that political habit. But its 140 million people are mostly poor, while the elites who run its underdeveloped and weak political and legal institutions are deeply divided on regional, ethnic and religious grounds and particularly prone to patronage and corruption. It did not prove possible to run this round of governorship, presidential and legislative elections without fraud and running violence, in which up to 200 people may have died. Those who complained loudest about the results have been accused of fomenting another military coup, should political disputes end in gridlock.
Mr Yar'Adua's wide margin of victory, in which the ruling People's Democratic party secured some 70 per cent of the vote, is not accepted by his two principal opponents. But it is unlikely that election tribunals will reverse these results. This lack of legitimacy will make it more difficult for Mr Yar'Adua to gain acceptance as president elect, notwithstanding his relatively good record as governor of the poor northern state of Katsina. He will have to dig deep into the patronage system to make the compromises capable of wining support, which will reproduce all the systemic weaknesses cleaner elections were meant to repair.
Nigeria's international reputation will also be affected by this unfortunate outcome. The country plays an increasingly important role in the African Union and other regional organisations, as they monitor peacekeeping and democratisation exercises throughout the continent. Nigeria's credibility as a mediator or peer will suffer as a result. All this should give its political class pause for thought and reflection on how best to ensure future elections are fair, even if these ones failed to meet that test.