WHO WOULD have thought that it would come to this, and so quickly, after all of those horrific years? Confirmation that work by the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning and by the Independent Monitoring Commission has ended in Northern Ireland is a matter for celebration. The organisations helped to deliver historic changes by facilitating the destruction of illegal arsenals and in reporting on the activities of republican and loyalist paramilitary groups. On occasion, they were subjected to the most severe criticism. But members stuck to their tasks and played important roles in ending decades of widespread violence.
Final reports will not be published until after the Assembly elections in May, suggesting that concerns persist about the activities of paramilitary organisations. But the fact that a devolved administration ran its full term for the first time in forty years – under a power-sharing Executive – offers significant hope for the future. It has taken immense government patience and difficult compromises by political parties to get here. The language being used by the leaders of both communities has changed significantly and now reflects common purpose and shared economic objectives.
The Assembly election campaign is likely to become the first in decades that will concentrate on economic and social issues, rather than on constitutional matters. DUP First Minister Peter Robinson believes the election results will provide a “defining moment” for Northern Ireland and usher in a new era of politics. He spoke of a society where everyone will have an opportunity to prosper and succeed, regardless of background. At the same time, he said politicians should not pretend that real differences did not exist, even as they worked together. Such language, echoing that of the Rev Ian Paisley in his final speech to the Assembly, represents seismic change.
Major challenges lie ahead. Setting its own taxation rates to encourage inward investment and to reduce its dependence on public service employment will come at a cost. At the same time, economic competitiveness is being undermined by a shortage of suitably skilled and educated workers. A recent report found the proportion of unqualified people within the working population to be the highest in the United Kingdom. That represents a threat to future stability in deprived communities where social structures have broken down and young men are being recruited by paramilitaries and criminal gangs. In that context, Mr Robinson’s call for the establishment of a single education system that would raise education standards and end “a benign form of apartheid” that made it difficult to build a shared and united community is likely to move centre stage after the election.
A question mark no longer hangs over the survival of the Assembly nor the Executive. These are major advances. The political parties are fully focused on maximising their support within the Assembly. Last year’s Westminster elections provided clear answers to constitutional questions. We can dare to hope that normalisation beckons.