The political institutions created under the Belfast Agreement a mere eight weeks ago hang this morning by a thread. Last night's announcement by the Secretary of State, Mr Peter Mandelson, of his intention to table legislation to suspend the representative institutions and the executive, has given a breathing space which presents the hope of a reprieve for Northern Ireland's power-sharing democracy.
Intensive efforts have been taking place to try to secure a formula from the IRA to enable the unionist leader Minister, Mr David Trimble, to remain in office as First Minister. The Taoiseach, Ministers and high-ranking officials have reportedly brought enormous pressure to bear upon Mr Gerry Adams and his colleagues. At a late hour last night there were intimations of some sort of response - perhaps a form of words or a commitment to action, in order to keep the unionists in the executive.
There may be hope of progress over the coming days. It is possible that the IRA and Sinn Fein did not fully comprehend that the institutions would, in fact, be suspended without substantial progress on decommissioning. They have become accustomed, undoubtedly, to hearing governments saying one thing and doing another. However, in this instance, the ace card is held by Mr Trimble whose post-dated resignation, once executed, must have the effect of collapsing the executive. The British - correctly - have taken the tactical position that orderly suspension is preferable to the uncontrolled collapse which would inevitably follow Mr Trimble's resignation.
It must be certain, in the absence of swift and substantial movement from the IRA, that direct rule will be reintroduced within days. Unionist spokesmen have said repeatedly that words alone, at this time, will not be sufficient. What, if anything, might persuade Mr Trimble and unionists to reverse their declared course, it is difficult to say. But the Taoiseach was correct when he declared yesterday that what is important is not "product" from the IRA but "clarity" of their intentions. Mr Mandelson used similar language last night. Regrettably, as the Secretary of State made clear in his House of Commons statement, Gen de Chastelain is still unable to get clear answers from the IRA's interlocutor in respect of two questions - will the IRA disarm and, if so, when.
The grief in the voice of Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness when he describes the possible loss of what has been established at such great cost is authentic and unmistakable. But no amount of Mr McGuinness's passion or wordplay must be allowed to obscure the reality of what has happened - and not happened. Republicans have failed to deliver that which the Belfast Agreement says is essential. Every effort has been made by the government and by the other political parties to enable them to do so without humiliation or surrender. Finally in December, Mr Trimble, with great political courage, went into government with Sinn Fein. There must be no doubt where the burden of responsibility now lies. It is on the shoulders of the IRA and Sinn Fein.
An executive with members linked to an armed body which declares itself entitled to revert to the use of force is a dangerous parody of democracy. It cannot be right that such an institution be allowed to function for anything more than a brief, interim phase. Republicans will have to show within days that they accept these realities. If not, Mr Mandelson must move to reintroduce direct rule. He would do so amidst sentiments of widespread and genuine regret but with the support of all committed democrats.