THE VERY welcome release from house arrest of Burma’s charismatic, Nobel-winning Aung San Suu Kyi has been greeted with joy and some expectation both internally and by her friends and admirers internationally. But, unfortunately, this is not a “Mandela moment” for Burma. The junta’s decision to free its most popular opponent is not a sign of weakness nor an acknowledgment that negotiated change is inevitably coming down the tracks, as Mandela’s jailers had understood. Arguably, it is quite the opposite.
The release is a defiant gesture to the world by a confident regime. Fortified – it would say “legitimised” – by an 80-per cent mandate for the generals’ USDP party in November 7th’s fraudulent election, 77-year-old Gen Than Shwe’s rebranded junta has every reason to feel it can throw a bone to the divided opposition. Not least also, because it hopes in doing so to reopen a discussion on the future of western-imposed sanctions. It has already succeeded in that.
Suu Kyi, who has spent 15 of the last 21 years in some form of detention, has twice been freed and twice re-arrested since she was first detained in July 1989 for “endangering the state”. There is every probability that her current freedom will be curtailed again at the whim of the regime and its compliant judiciary. Even at liberty she remains under threat – Suu Kyi’s motorcade was attacked in May 2003 by pro-junta thugs in the town of Depayin while on a countryside tour. She was placed back under house arrest, which the regime called “protective custody”. Two thousand other political prisoners remain incarcerated, many having suffered torture and rape.
Deprived of a parliamentary platform by the junta which dissolved her party ahead of the elections, Suu Kyi can only rely on her personal authority in taking on the regime. Apart from the nebulous moral clout she derives from the crowds she can rally and her ability to persuade the international community to lift sanctions, she has little with which to negotiate. Not surprisingly then, her words on release to supporters and the international media have been placatory, urging not demanding, hinting at an openness to change. “If people really want sanctions to be lifted, I will consider this,” she said, calling on Than Shwe to meet her.
The cynical willingness of neighbours China, India, and Thailand to invest in Burma’s ports, railways and oil and gas pipelines to gain access to its huge natural resources has also undermined the importance to the regime of western sanctions and whetted the appetite of western investors eager to do likewise, itching to get back into the country.
The regime’s international apologists, and even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, are characterising the election and release as steps in the direction of democracy that should be rewarded. But their arguments should be resisted by the European Union. Making concessions to the junta at this time would simply undermine whatever small leverage Suu Kyi and Burma’s democrats possess. The EU should stand firm.