Confidence has been a strong theme in the campaigning for a Welsh Assembly by leaders of the Labour government. According to the Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, speaking in north Wales yesterday, its people will promote their political confidence if they accept the devolution proposal when they vote tomorrow. One of his ministers, Mr Peter Hain, spoke of a climate of confidence in investment decisions, while the Secretary of State, Mr Ron Davies, argues that "an elected assembly will give Wales a voice, in Britain and Europe, after years of neglect".
From the Irish perspective, it is not difficult to sympathise with this point of view. But it is important not to underestimate the opposition to the devolution proposal, which is reflected in very tight opinion polls. Wales is more diverse than Scotland - geographically and socially - with a less developed sense of nationhood. While there are strong arguments in favour of a devolved government to oversee expenditure by the Welsh Office, opponents point out that it has presided over a remarkable economic resurgence in the last decade. They fear this success could be undone by a devolved administration. Many business leaders agree, perhaps because they anticipate a strong Labour voice in the new assembly. And the line-up certainly finds most Conservatives on the "no" side, where they have a more convincing case to make, and a more receptive audience among their own and many Labour activists and supporters, than in Scotland.
One of the reasons the Labour leaders stress the issue of confidence, of course, is that they will lose a lot of it if the proposal is defeated. So far, the Blair government has been on a roll, propelled by a strong popular mandate for change, a very brisk pace indeed with strategic and constitutional legislation, a spectacularly demoralised opposition underwhelmingly led by Mr William Hague, and a sea-change in the tone of its international relations, especially in Europe. Were it to suffer defeat in tomorrow's referendum a lot of the gloss would be taken off this record, self-doubt could return to slow the pace of reform and political momentum would be lost.
On the balance of probabilities, it looks as if the vote will be carried, however marginally. This would usher in a scheme less advanced and ambitious than that for Scotland. A Welsh Assembly would not have tax-raising powers; nor would it oversee an autonomy as complete historically or in terms of government structures as that in Scotland. The stepping stone argument towards independence comes much more readily to the lips of the Welsh Nationalists than to those of their counterparts in Scotland.
Good arguments can indeed be made that devolution will engender greater confidence. Government conducted closer to the people makes more and more sense in the larger European states - and in this respect Britain is only catching up with schemes of decentralisation elsewhere on the continent. The flaws in its design arise more from inconsistencies in the powers granted to the different nations and regions in Britain than from the effort to devolve power away from London and the myriad quangos through which it has ruled in recent decades.