IN BAGHDAD the daily toll of death and kidnapping remains remorselessly high; the sectarian divisions just as deep; civil society in tatters; electricity sporadic; reconstruction barely begun; as the country drifts rudderless without a government nearly six months after elections. But for President Obama it is “time to turn the page”. Addressing the US public on Tuesday night in his second prime-time address from the Oval Office, he declared an end to the war. “Tonight, I am announcing that the American combat mission in Iraq has ended,” he said, expressing the hope “that out of the ashes of war, a new beginning could be born in this cradle of civilisation”. It is a hope sadly belied by the reality on the ground.
Mr Obama spoke of the genuinely huge price the US and its troops have paid for a war that he inherited most unwillingly from George Bush. Some 1.5 million troops served in Iraq, their numbers now down from a high of 170,000 to 50,000, comprising only trainers and non-combat forces. More than 4,400 died in seven years of fighting and 32,000 were wounded. The war’s €586 billion financial cost far outstripped original estimates, contributing sharply to Washington’s spiraling deficit.
For what? This ill-conceived war, born out of a monumental intelligence foul-up and the great Weapons-of -Mass-Destruction lie, has extracted an even greater price from Iraq, leaving its people significantly worse off. Some 100,000 civilians have lost their lives from occupation-related violence. Iraqis are marginally freer and their society more open than in 2003 but women and gays face continued discrimination, and corruption is endemic, notably in the legal system. And its people are far less secure and considerably impoverished. Two million remain abroad as refugees, with another two million internally displaced. Production of oil, Iraq’s lifeblood, remains below pre-invasion levels.
The continuing failure of the country’s parties to agree a new coalition government also reflects the waning political influence of the US that has paralleled its gradual military disengagement. The deep continuing divisions between Sunni and Shia is a reflection of the biggest political failure, the complete absence of planning for the aftermath of military invasion.
“Only Iraqis can build a democracy within their borders,” Mr Obama argued, a conclusion that has been hard-learned and is being applied in Afghanistan where the continued US engagement is also now about local capacity-building. And in his speech there was none of the misplaced Bush “mission accomplished” triumphalism. This is not a war won.
For the US, Iraq has been much more than a domestic political sore and military bed of nails. Its unilateralism soured its relationships with the rest of the world, most notably of course the Islamic world, but also with many in Europe where the war was deeply unpopular, and with Russia and China. Bush redefined the nature of US global engagement in the aftermath of 9/11, a posture Obama has been seeking to refashion. It is still very much a work in progress.