A changing national mood and stiff competition are combining to make the presidential election campaign in the United States suddenly more interesting at home and abroad.
Yesterday the Republican candidates had their last televised debate before the trend-setting Iowa caucuses on January 3rd. While none of them landed a killer blow, the debate confirmed the rapid emergence of Mike Huckabee as an attractive frontline runner, combining economic populism with Christian evangelism. His strong performance in recent weeks underlines how open is this contest - a pattern mirrored on the Democratic side by Barack Obama's polling lead in that state over Hillary Clinton.
Worries about the economy and jobs have supplanted those about Iraq, terrorism and national security as the principal issues in both Republican and Democratic camps. Associated with this is a greater emphasis among candidates and voters on social security and healthcare. The electorate still sees the Iraq war as an important issue, but there is a marked fall in confidence that the Bush administration has handled it well; a majority now says it was not worth fighting.
These changing trends in national opinion vary in intensity between the main political blocs, but their general direction is clear. Last week's National Intelligence Estimate that Iran stopped work on nuclear weapons in 2003 has taken possible US military action against that country off the immediate election agenda. From here it looks as if the election in November next will be dominated by domestic concerns about the direction of US society rather than by foreign policy matters. There is a marked tendency towards protectionism and greater attention to social inequalities, reflecting the highly uneven distribution of the national wealth created over the last two decades. The richest and poorest Americans are now much more divided, while the vast middle class has seen its standard of living frozen for most of the Bush years.
Family values as defined by Christian conservatism remain a major distinguishing feature between Republican and Democratic supporters in campaigning. But here too these shifts can plainly be seen. Mr Huckabee's recent breakthrough owes much to his emphasis on poverty, the need for action on climate change and his economic unorthodoxy compared to mainstream corporate Republicans. It shows in his ability to attract grassroots volunteers and popular support. He is now being severely tested by opposing candidates on his competence and political record. He appeals to Christian evangelists willing to think outside the box.
That phrase was used by Oprah Winfrey in her strong pitch for Mr Obama last week. "We are living at a defining moment in our history," she said. "Our nation is at war, the planet is in peril, the dream that so many generations fought for feels it is slowly slipping away." Her message tells us much about the US national mood as its citizens decide on a new president.