Opposition shows hints of getting its act together

The Government is, undoubtedly, in deep trouble, but it can take temporary solace from the fact that the Opposition does not …

The Government is, undoubtedly, in deep trouble, but it can take temporary solace from the fact that the Opposition does not yet look ready to take its place, writes Mark Hennessy.

However, there are interesting things happening in the undergrowth of both Fine Gael and Labour which could alter the picture significantly as the new year beckons.

The Labour Party under Pat Rabbitte is gently being steered away from old shibboleths, though party figures rebel against comparisons with Tony Blair's New Labour project. Since his elevation, Rabbitte has spent much time reviving links with union bosses now comfortable with Fianna Fáil rule and the power social partnership confers. Nevertheless, the significance of Rabbitte's thoughts should not be under-estimated - particularly since they offer the potential for dissension amongst the comrades.

The first signs of the new mantra were included in Rabbitte's prepared script for Labour's Killarney conference, though it was chopped when he ran out of time. However, he has returned to the theme a couple of times since, both before the Cobh Chamber of Commerce and in a speech to Waterford trade unionists this week.

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The old economic models of right and left are outdated, where Labour always held the placard supporting public service workers right or wrong, Rabbitte holds. Today, Labour must have as much regard for the concerns of the public as consumers of public services as for those providing those very same services. "As a party, we have long recognised the importance of public services, but we can sometimes lose track of why," he said when he gave the Michael O'Brien lecture.

"In particular, we are often inclined to focus our attention and concern on the providers of public services, rather than on the consumers of those services," Rabbitte declared. Acknowledging that a changing society poses challenges for Labour's core values, Rabbitte said: "The class struggle may have been difficult, but it had the advantage of simplicity.

"Today, there is a much more complex balance to be struck between a variety of interests - capital, labour, consumers and society," he declared.

So far, Rabbitte is gently posing questions. He has not yet put the hard options before State-employed trade unionists: more accountability and better performance, just for starters. In time, he will have to do so for his actions to have any credibility.

Fine Gael, on the other hand, have done so. Scrap benchmarking pay awards for the public service, they said - with few ifs, buts, or maybes. Faced with anger from teachers, nurses and other State workers, Fine Gael is betting that more numerous private-sector workers will make up for the loss.

The policy has the benefit of being clear and unambiguous and defensible, even if it does place Fine Gael on a collision course with powerful interest groups. However, it creates tensions with Labour that will have to be overcome if the two are to have any chance of ousting Fianna Fáil from the corridors of power.

Months ago, Fine Gael figures privately bemoaned Labour's reluctance to form a common front in the Dáil. Today, Labour people are more likely to express the same thoughts. The change does not herald new-found confidence within Fine Gael, although there is some. Rather, it highlights their realisation that they have to stand for something. Politics is now as much about branding as policies.

Differences have emerged also between the parties over Labour's idea for a cap in the price of building land and other issues, such as neutrality, which could become quite a bugbear given events in Iraq and elsewhere. The difficulty is that Fine Gael cannot move so far away from Labour that it makes the prospect of the formation of a coalition after the next election unrealistic.

So far, Fine Gael's parliamentary performance has been limp, but getting better. Despite the modest improvements, it does not yet have people who are clearly "ministers in waiting".

Neither does Enda Kenny look like "the man who will be the next Taoiseach", though Bertie Ahern rarely managed to look like it either when he was leader of the Opposition.

The public's attitude towards Kenny will change if he continues to improve and if opinion poll figures put him within shouting range of power. The latest opinion poll contains mixed news for the Mayoman. More people now recognise him. However, five new people dislike what they see for every three who are favourable.

Next year's local elections will be a "mock" general election - though the Opposition has to worry that voters will fully vent their anger at Fianna Fáil, leaving little in reserve for the real battle.

Planning within Fine Gael for the campaign ahead is continuing. New candidates are being found, including many women, moribund organisations are coming slowly back to life. However, it faces a monumental task.

In 1999, Fine Gael won 32 per cent of the vote: "The organisation keeps telling me that we will win seats. I keep saying to them, 'We are at 22 per cent. We got 32 per cent in 1999.' Show me how we will hold, or win seats," one party insider commented privately this week.

Still, life for the Opposition can surely only get better.

Bertie Ahern's "annus horribilis" continues unabated, following G.V. Wright's arrest for drunk driving and Michael Collins's tax settlement. Resignations would follow in most jurisdictions. Not here, though.

Indeed, the Opposition does not even call for blood. Members of "The Political Club" will not turn on other members of "The Political Club".

There are times when one can only despair about the state of politics in this fair land of ours.