A deal to restore devolution is now down to the two party leaders, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
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March 7th it is then: the third Assembly elections, as announced yesterday. And elections, just like a hanging, concentrate minds.
It will certain focus the thoughts of the very capable vote crunchers in the DUP and Sinn Féin who believe they can make further advances at the expense of the Ulster Unionist Party and SDLP.
That's as maybe. Backs against the wall the UUP and SDLP will fight doggedly and who can say what the political climate will be like on Wednesday, March 7th. Indeed, who can say we will get to an election on that date? That's the immediate and important question.
Next Friday, November 24th, is the next hurdle to be overcome. It's supposed to be a red-letter occasion, the day when Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness are to be nominated as first minister and deputy first minister designate, a symbolic moment when the great Northern public realises that Dr Paisley and Mr Adams actually will do historic business together.
But it won't happen like that. The politicians can't surmount the hurdle because of the row over the pledge of office on policing. So, therefore they will go around it. What's new.
Publication of the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Bill yesterday permitted further progress. The DUP and Sinn Féin got their election and were generally happy with the bill. The legislation allows Assembly members to continue in work and in receipt of pay until next March, if we can get past next Friday.
There are checks and balances in the bill so that both nationalists and unionists can argue that their requirements on North-South matters, ministerial accountability, the Irish language, Ulster Scots and other issues were met. After Friday we should have a transitional Assembly that will dissolve on January 30th next year for the election over five weeks later.
Implicit here is that if the policing issue is to be solved Sinn Féin will call its ardfheis before January 30th.
So the argument from Dublin and London is that there is movement, that there is no need to panic. At least not yet. The governments have a point. What remains to be achieved to get full-blown devolution on March 26th is not complicated: it's simply down to the will of Dr Paisley and Mr Adams.
They have crossed the river on policing and powersharing. They have yet to formally commit to these issues but Dr Paisley has already said he is up for powersharing if Mr Adams is up for policing. Mr Adams is up for policing if Dr Paisley is up for powersharing. If they could stop going around in circles for a moment they could settle the matter.
There are two significant problems left: devolving policing and justice to the Northern Executive and Mr McGuinness adopting the pledge of office enshrined in the St Andrews legislation published yesterday. It requires him to affirm a pledge that he will support the PSNI and law and order. Dr Paisley says he will not be nominated as first minister designate if Mr McGuinness refuses to make this affirmation on Friday.
It's not going to happen on Friday because Mr McGuinness says that would be prejudging the outcome of a Sinn Féin ardfheis on policing, yet to be called.
The solution under consideration amounts to a fudge, but again what's new. In the Assembly on Friday, Sinn Féin plans to nominate Mr McGuinness as deputy first minister designate.
While Dr Paisley will not be nominated as first minister designate the governments hope he or his party will make clear to Speaker Eileen Bell, or through some other mechanism yet to be finalised, that subject to Sinn Féin signing up on policing he will be first minister on March 26th. The governments will be satisfied if Dr Paisley and Mr McGuinness are conditionally or informally deemed as shadow first minister and deputy first minister next Friday.
"It's the symbolism that is important," as a senior Dublin source said.
The remaining obstacle, therefore, is when responsibility for justice and policing transfers from Westminster to a Northern Executive department of justice.
The St Andrews Agreement sets a target, as opposed to a specific date of May 2008.
To sell policing at an ardfheis, republicans need a date for devolution, Sinn Féin insists.
It won't happen in a "political lifetime", countered DUP MP Nigel Dodds last week, triggering Sinn Féin fury.
"In Ian Paisley terms a political lifetime is 60 years, so how could we sell that to grassroots," as one senior Sinn Féin figure put it. But again it's down to will. It was significant yesterday that the first Programme for Government committee, which was aborted almost four weeks ago because Dr Paisley boycotted it over the pledge row, is scheduled to meet on Monday, and on a weekly basis thereafter.
Its predecessor, the Preparation for Government Assembly committee, after initial regular rows allowed real engagement between the DUP and Sinn Féin. The strategy is that the programme committee will permit a further thawing of relationships between the two parties, and that it is through this contact that Sinn Féin and the DUP will arrive at an accommodation over when policing and justice will be devolved.
Oh, if it were so easy, the politicians lament. There are rumblings within the DUP and Sinn Féin heartlands about the planned seismic moves on powersharing and policing. Yet both leaderships remain strong and appear capable of managing any opposition to St Andrews.
The question, therefore, is if Dr Paisley and Mr Adams are committed in principle to making this work, as they say they are, where's the problem?