After an extraordinary first 10 days, this election campaign has now entered a relatively subdued phase, writes Noel Whelan
Exhaustion is setting in, as the politicians, party apparatchiks and political media have been keeping campaign hours since Easter. After the disorientating early Sunday morning start to the election proper, many were hoping that the May bank holiday weekend would bring an opportunity for respite.
The Progressive Democrats put paid to that however. Last Sunday, for the second weekend in a row, journalists were roused early. This time it was to a city centre hotel where, to the surprise of many, the Tánaiste announced that he and his party were not after all pulling out of Government.
Instead, McDowell demanded public answers from the Taoiseach about his personal finances.
The Progressive Democrats tried to explain away the uncertainty about whether they would pull out of Government by blaming it on a frenzy of media speculation. The media, on the other hand, pointed to divisions within the Progressive Democrats and/or a change of mind on McDowell's own part as the more accurate explanation for the weekend's confusion.
The Progressive Democrats and their leaders were either typically indecisive or reckless in their media management. It was naive of them to think that, at the height of an election campaign, they could ignore a gathering media storm and retire to a house down the country to calmly deliberate over their options. It's hard to come to any conclusion other than that last weekend's events have further damaged the Progressive Democrats' already difficult election prospects.
The upshot of last weekend's happenings was the promise from the Taoiseach that he would make a full statement about the purchase of his home during the campaign. There are indications that the commitment to make the statement was extracted as much at the insistence of some of his own Ministers as at that of the Progressive Democrats.
A Fianna Fáil press conference had been scheduled for noon last Sunday but was postponed to 3pm - a crucial three hours that not only allowed time to absorb what McDowell had said, but also to allow senior Fianna Fáil Ministers, including deputy leader Brian Cowen, to meet Ahern. It was from that meeting that the strategy of promising a full statement evolved.
As a result, the payments controversy was parked for the rest of this week and it will probably stay parked for at least some of next week. It allowed the Taoiseach the space to focus on his attendance at Tuesday's historic event in Stormont, on paying tributes to his friend Tony Blair, who announced his retirement on Thursday, and then on meeting with Ian Paisley at the site of the Battle of the Boyne yesterday.
For five full days now the campaign has refocused on the issues. As a result, the campaign has been more worthy but less interesting. Much of the morning press conferences has been given over to reheating previously announced policies and revisiting marginal differences between the parties. There are very few real differences between the parties - even Sinn Féin has now signed up to the low-tax consensus.
The distinctions, such as they are, between the parties and their promises to the electorate have been well rehearsed for several months, and most of them had their first outings at the series of party conferences this spring.
Of course, the payment controversy will resurface, at least temporarily, whenever the Taoiseach publishes his statement. Some doubt whether a statement can be produced that is consistent with what he has already said on the complex sequence of payments, whether publicly in the Dáil and to Bryan Dobson last autumn, privately to the Tánaiste, or to the tribunal in a supposedly private session four weeks ago.
Those close to Ahern, however, are confident that such a comprehensive statement can be produced. No precise time has been given for its release, although it will probably have to come before the head-to-head television debate now scheduled for next Thursday.
Much of what Fianna Fáil has had to say about the media pursuit of this story has, frankly, been over the top. However, just because they are paranoid does not mean that some in the media aren't out to get them. For some journalists, this is personal - they are biased against the Government parties or against Ahern specifically. The attention given to this story is out of proportion to the public's interest in it, but there are a number of reasons for this.
Although complicated, it is a potentially dramatic story. There is a sense that some in the media enjoy exercising the modern power of the fourth estate - seeing it as appropriate that they, rather than the electorate, should decide whether Ahern will be Taoiseach again. However, most are pursuing this story out of grander journalistic motives. Their worry is that if Ahern is re-elected Taoiseach and shortly thereafter the tribunal reveals information that, if the voters had known it in advance, would have changed the election result, then the Irish media would have failed to do its job and would look foolish.
Having been submerged in the payments controversy for its first phase, subdued by a low-key policy debate in the second phase, the campaign is now entering its final crucial stage in which the question of leadership will be front and centre. There will be more exchanges on policy every day next week and more polls next weekend, as well as next Thursday's televised debate between Ahern and Enda Kenny.
In 2002, the leaders' debate was held just three days before polling. This time around there will still be a full week between the broadcast of the debate and the opening of polls, including the crucial last weekend of the campaign.
On this occasion, the debate is a match between two contenders who, yesterday's TNS/mrbi poll confirmed, stand evenly matched in their prospects for the top job. In a campaign where leadership is now the key issue, the televised battle of the leaders could be decisive.