With the signing of the international agreement on arms decommissioning by both the Irish and British governments, conditions are advanced for the beginning of substantive talks at Stormont on September 15th next. A further step in the elaborate preparatory work for the talks will take place today when the Northern Secretary, Dr Mowlam, - who has been reassured by her security advisers about the bona fides of the IRA ceasefire - is expected to confirm that Sinn Fein is eligible to attend. All this represents real and substantial progress, more than seemed possible only ten weeks ago when the IRA murdered RUC constables Graham and Johnston in Lurgan town centre. But the resumption of the IRA ceasefire and, not least, the magnanimous decision of the Orange Order to postpone and re-route contentious marches, have helped to transform the political landscape. The resolution of the Blair administration has also been an important catalyst for change. The question now is whether the Unionist leadership will pick up the baton and seize the opportunity to mould its people's political future. The agreement on decommissioning is somewhat less than Mr Trimble and the Ulster Unionists say they require. Both governments have established a framework to allow for decommissioning alongside the talks but there are no cast-iron guarantees. The hope is that the momentum generated by the talks will, as Dr Mowlam suggests, create a "dynamic" for decommissioning. Mr Seamus Mallon of the SDLP appears confident that some gesture will be made by the IRA but there is no firm timetable for decommissioning and no certainty that arms will actually be handed over.
But there is also a need for Mr Trimble to take the wider view as he weighs his party's options. The current phase of the peace process has been notable, above all else, for the great pragmatism shown by both governments which has allowed potential hurdles to be circumvented. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Burke, is right to encourage all sides to take a "leap of faith" at this juncture. There are various signs that the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party appreciates that the moment of truth is at hand. Mr Trimble has assiduously canvassed a range of opinion around the unionist hinterland - among the churches, business people and the social partners - about his party's participation in the talks process. His own constituency representatives in Upper Bann want the UUP to remain in the talks. Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, meanwhile, spoke in stirring terms on radio yesterday about the need for unionism to be "proactive" in shaping its own destiny and about the need for unionists to assert themselves. At this writing, there is still no certainty that the Ulster Unionists will actually sit down opposite Sinn Fein on September 15th. There are suggestions of some kind of Dayton-style `proximity' talks. These are tactical questions and they should not be allowed to detract from the stark choice with which the UUP is faced. The unionists can stand aloof as the two governments press on with new arrangements or they can - in the manner of a statesman who came back into the news again this week, F. W. de Klerk, - take their courage in their hands and seek to shape their own destiny.