Mary Harney will pay particular attention to the local election counts when they begin on Saturday because her future as Tanaiste and leader of the Progressive Democrats may well hinge upon them.
The Progressive Democrats are not contesting the European Parliament elections; therefore, a good return on the party's investment at local authority level is critical to their survival.
Without a strong local authority base, the party cannot grow. As the tyranny of age creates gaps in the ranks of the parliamentary party, new blood is desperately needed.
The party hopes at least half-a-dozen strong Dail prospects will emerge through the present council process. In contrast with normal pre-election hype, the party will be satisfied to hold its outgoing level of 29 council representatives. There is no sense of a great leap forward; more a case of desperate defence and careful positioning.
Recent elections have not been kind to the Progressive Democrats and the party is wary of the temper of voters. All it knows is that, without a reasonable showing tomorrow its obituary as a political party will once again be carried prominently in the media.
Good local elections for the Progressive Democrats could encourage the party to take a more independent and forceful line in Government in preparation for the next general election. However, if it fails to return candidates of Dail calibre, its assertiveness will almost certainly decline.
Paradoxically, the stability of the Coalition might suffer even more if Fianna Fail enjoys good fortune in the local elections and regains the 7 percentage points it lost in 1991. With a raft of new councillors and would-be Dail members rocking the boat, the party might decide the need of the Progressive Democrats was greater than its.
This tendency would be exaggerated if the party does as well as predicted in the European Parliament elections. Last week's Irish Times/ MRBI opinion poll suggested Fianna Fail will hold its seven European seats and possibly win another. Should that happen, the dream of an overall Dail majority will stir again within the party.
Given the caution of Bertie Ahern and his attention to detail, however, it is unlikely the Taoiseach will allow his more ebullient supporters to stampede him into an early general election.
The Fianna Fail leader takes the long-term view. That was evident when he refused to challenge Albert Reynolds for the leadership, in spite of the urgings of the Haughey camp, in 1992. He bided his time and the plum job eventually fell into his lap. Anyway, Mr Ahern would argue, new councillors benefit from a couple of years of bedding-in at local level.
It is hard to decide whether John Bruton or Ruairi Quinn have most to lose in these contests. The leadership of both men will come under scrutiny if their parties perform badly. If John Bruton cannot hold out the prospect of leading a future coalition government, his dissatisfaction ratings are sure to climb.
Fine Gael doesn't anticipate failure. The opinion polls give the party the capacity to win an additional one, or even two, European seats, and it is fielding 50 more county council candidates than in 1991.
On the figures - and given the trials of Fianna Fail in the various tribunals - the party should perform comfortably, but it will have to win 13 extra council seats to return to the strength it held in 1985. At the same time, competition with the Labour Party in the main cities is more intense than ever.
These elections will not just measure the effectiveness of Ruairi Quinn as party leader, they will also reflect public attitudes towards the recent merger between the Labour Party and Democratic Left. The new party was designed to produce a whole greater than the sum of the parts. This is proof-of-the-pudding-is-in-the-eating time.
Labour won 90 county council seats in 1991. Following the split in the Workers' Party, Democratic Left acquired 18 seats. Those were good elections for the left-wing parties, which gained 36 seats overall; it will be difficult to replicate those results.
If there is a dramatic fall-off in support and Fine Gael regains its position as the second-strongest party in Dublin, tensions are certain to rise within Labour and Mr Quinn's leadership could be threatened.
These elections will also have a major bearing on the fortunes of the Green Party. Its two European seats are in jeopardy and the larger parties are determined to stunt its growth at council level. Last time out, it gained 13 council seats and it intends to increase that power base of this occasion.
The number of Green candidates has increased from 57 to 78 and the party is far better organised and more professional in its approach.
Sinn Fein is looking for a political breakthrough south of the Border. It has put forward candidates in the European elections to raise their public profiles and to prepare them for future Dail contests.
The main test for the party will be at local level. It holds seven council seats at the moment and would hope to make significant gains. It has put forward 67 candidates, compared to 42 in 1991.
New powers and responsibilities are about to be transferred to local authorities. With the severing of the umbilical cord between the Oireachtas and local councils planned for 2004, county councils and county borough corporations are likely to become much more creative and assertive. For all the political parties, a test of their future strength and relevance starts tomorrow.