Rumours of the demise of the Progressive Democrats have previously been exaggerated. This time, however, concerns for the party's survival are well-founded, writes Noel Whelan.
The Progressive Democrats have had a see-saw electoral history. However, the electoral damage suffered in May was on a different scale, and the party's problems have been compounded since by a series of further blows.
With only two TDs, the party is on the wrong side of the dividing line between being a niche party and a non-party. The promised inclusion of two PD members among the Taoiseach's nominees to the new Seanad later this month will double the party's parliamentary representation, but that may not be enough to ensure its survival.
The Progressive Democrats are haemorrhaging high-profile figures. Michael McDowell is back in the Law Library. Liz O'Donnell is to pursue a career in the private sector. This week came the news that Tom Parlon is to take up the position of director of the Construction Industry Federation.
These three resignations reduce even further the party's chances of regaining seats in Dublin South-East, Dublin South and Laois/Offaly. Mae Sexton and Tim O'Malley are sticking with the political slog, but the fact that Fine Gael had new deputies elected in Longford and Limerick East means the PDs are extremely unlikely to regain either seat. Mary Harney has indicated that she will not contest the next election and there is no obvious contender who could hold the party's seat in Dublin Mid-West.
There is much speculation that the other Progressive Democrats deputy, Noel Grealish, may join Fianna Fáil. At this stage such speculation is premature. If he does move to Fianna Fáil, it will happen only because the PDs have no sustainable future.
There would be room for Grealish in Fianna Fáil in Galway West. He has a geographic base distinct from Fianna Fáil's sitting deputies, Éamon Ó Cuív and Frank Fahey, and indeed from the party's new contender, Michael Crowe. Grealish being on a ticket with some or all of these Fianna Fáilers could see the party winning three seats comfortably.
However, Grealish does not need to be in Fianna Fáil. Having being elected this time against a national trend, he appears to have a secure political base which is likely to ensure his re-election next time out, irrespective of whether he stands for the Progressive Democrats, Fianna Fáil or as an Independent.
In addition to losing leading personnel, the election result has also cost the Progressive Democrats money. Most of the State funding received by political parties is calculated on the basis of the number of first-preference votes secured in the last election.
The Progressive Democrats' first preference vote is down more than a third and so, too, will be their annual grant. A number of other allowances are paid to the party based on the number of TDs it has and these will obviously be reduced considerably as well.
But what is potentially more financially catastrophic for the party is that, although it is back in government, it may have lost much of its appeal to business donors.
They are less likely to curry favour or support democracy by giving to a political party whose very survival is not guaranteed. This financial squeeze will inevitably have consequences for the party's ability to fund future campaigns and run its day-to-day operation.
While the party points to a flood of new members in the wake of the election as a positive signal, this may be illusionary. All parties get a similar influx after the intensity of election campaigns. People drawn into candidates' campaigns by family or other associations often move shortly afterwards to formally join the party.
If the Progressive Democrats are to survive even for another couple of years, their first and most important task is to find a credible new leader.
With Tom Parlon out of contention, outgoing Senators Tom Morrissey and Colm O'Gorman have both declared an interest. Their ambition is commendable in the circumstances.
There is nothing in either of their electoral histories to suggest that they can attract the additional support the party needs. Both Morrissey and O'Gorman would have lost their deposits in May's election if deposits were still required.
Fiona O'Malley, the other likely contender for the party leadership, has more going for her. Her vote fell dramatically in Dún Laoghaire in this election, but winning a seat in 2002 in a constituency where the party had not held one for 15 years was a significant achievement.
As the daughter of the party's founder, Fiona O'Malley would come to the leadership position with considerable party heritage, but she would also bring a quirky approach to politics which might be just what the party now needs.
A young female party leader would also have novelty value, since all of the other party leaders will be men in or nearly in their 50s (assuming John Gormley wins the Green Party leadership).
Although her approach to politics is at times unconventional, O'Malley has shown herself to be a substantial parliamentarian. During the last Dáil term she cut out a niche as a backbencher on the Communications, Marine and Natural Resources Committee, where she had interesting and innovative things to say, especially on energy policy.
The local elections in 2009 will be a crucial moment for the Progressive Democrats, if they survive as a party until then. They have 30 councillors, each of whom knows what the bad national performance in this general election means for their prospects next time.
The Progressive Democrats will probably again be squeezed out in 2009, when Fianna Fáil can only do better than it did in 2004 and when Fine Gael will still be on the up.
Many of the Progressive Democrats' councillors will take a hard look at the line-up in their ward or electoral area and conclude that joining Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, or contesting as Independents, might be a wiser course.