It's the time of year when sixth year students' thoughts turn to college applications. It is estimated that about 63,000 students will sit the Leaving Certificate this year and the ranks of those applying to the Central Applications Office will be swelled by more mature applicants, who may not have formal educational qualifications. Pessimism about the chances of securing a college place is fashionable. The reality is more cheering. Last year, the number of offers exceeded the number of CAO applicants by some 20,000. This was possible as some students are made offers from both the certificates/diploma and the degree list. Of course, some applicants did not receive any offer. In all, some 83 per cent of the 65,000 applicants who applied for a college place through the CAO received an offer.
The numbers in third-level education have increased rapidly over the last 30 years - from 21,000 full-time students in 1965 to more than 103,000 in 1997-98. This represented about 56 per cent of the age cohort, about half of whom were taking degree-level programmes. In 1965, only 11 per cent of the agecohort entered third-level education. The report of the Steering Committee on the Future of Higher Education (1995) estimated that the numbers in third-level education would increase to about 117,000 by 200203, although it now seems likely that figure will be reached before then. There are currently some 116,000 full-time students enrolled in third-level education in the State.
The so-called points race is becoming less of an issue as the number of college places continues to increase and the number of school-leavers begins to decline, although mature applicants may go some way towards making up the shortfall. The much-talked-of cut-off points are a function of supply and demand. The cut-off for a particular course is determined by the number of applicants, the points levels of these applicants and the number of available places. This magic number, the cut-off point for a particular course, is simply the points attained by the last student offered a place on the course.
More than 70 courses in the CAO list in 1999 accepted all qualified applicants. In the case of many national certificate courses, the minimum requirement is five ordinary-level D3s, or 25 points. An analysis of the results of school candidates who sat the Leaving Certificate in 1997 showed that 91.5 per cent of candidates attained this points score. At the other end of the scale, there is a relatively small number of courses, mostly professional, where the demand for places far exceeds the supply. The Commission on the Points System has recommended that there should be a regular review of places on these over-subscribed courses. But, all things considered, third-level opportunities have never been greater in Ireland than they are now at the beginning of the 21st century