POLAND’S CENTRE right prime minister Donald Tusk may well today be celebrating the victory of his nominee Bronislaw Komorowski in the second round of the presidential election, albeit by a whisker. But the election leaves him exposed. A weak-willed and nervous Mr Tusk has used the presidential veto wielded by the late Lech Kaczynski to justify delays in crucial economic, health, pensions, and labour market reform.
And, although the only economy in the EU to have avoided recession last year, a sharp slowdown has hammered Polish tax revenues and is pushing debt inexorably closer to the 55 per cent of GDP threshold which by law triggers painful spending cuts.
Unlike Germany’s parliamentary presidential vote last week, the power of a Polish president to propose and veto legislation, make appointments, and to intervene in foreign and security policy, makes the country’s direct presidential vote far more than a symbolic test of government or opposition popularity.
But now Mr Tusk has no excuse for holding back on the radical and painful reform he promises – not least the attempt to bring the annual deficit down from 7per cent to 3 per cent – although the prospect of next year’s parliamentary elections, and a difficult coalition partner, may well yet stay his hand. Mr Kaczynski’s twin brother Jaroslaw, head of the Law and Justice party and former prime minister, gave Mr Komorowski a surprisingly close run.
“The next campaign begins this year,” the newly made-over, all-things-to-all-men Mr Kacszynski warned, looking distinctly undefeated.
But the muted relief of Mr Tusk’s Civic Union (PO) will be shared by investors and European partners. The late president’s Euroscepticism made him an uncomfortable ally, not least when he threatened to block ratification of Lisbon, and the Polish EU presidency next year will certainly be easier without Mr Kaczynski’s Vaclav-Klaus-like assistance. Unlike the twin, Mr Komorowski has also pledged to back Polish accession to the euro.
Poland’s fourth democratically elected president since the fall of communism in 1989, Mr Komorowski was speaker of the lower house of parliament and second ranking official in the state hierarchy when Mr Kaczynski’s plane crashed three months ago, and automatically became acting president.
A cautious figure close to Civic Union, he faces a difficult time ahead balancing between his support for Mr Tusk and the independence he vaunted in his campaign.