THERE IS a dearth of leadership in these worst of times. It is likely that Brian Cowen and Enda Kenny will limp into the coming general election as the respective leaders of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Removing Mr Cowen as Taoiseach would probably trigger an immediate general election and the loss of many Fianna Fáil Dáil seats while a second attempt to replace Mr Kenny could further damage the election prospects of that party.
The latest Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll reveals a high degree of public disillusionment with both leaders. Fewer than one in three voters would like to see Mr Cowen remain as leader of Fianna Fáil. And three out of five believe he should step down as Taoiseach. In the event of a coalition government involving Fine Gael and the Labour Party being formed after an election, nearly half of those questioned would prefer Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore to be taoiseach, as against one quarter who favour Mr Kenny. Within their political parties, however, majorities want both Mr Cowen and Mr Kenny to lead on.
As backbench concern about the harsh steps necessary to reduce Government spending in the December Budget grows, a special meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party has been demanded to debate the performance of the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil’s communications strategy. It is a crude and indirect challenge to Mr Cowen’s leadership. In the normal course of events, it might possibly succeed. But these are not normal times. The State’s economic and financial difficulties are such that a leadership “heave” could be represented as irresponsible political behaviour; a general election would probably follow with substantial seat losses and the public’s first choice to replace Mr Cowen – Brian Lenihan – has health problems. Should the Minister for Finance seek the position, however, he would probably win.
Having failed to replace Enda Kenny with Richard Bruton in a campaign that split the party, the Fine Gael dissidents lack an established, high-profile challenger. Mr Kenny’s poor showing in the opinion polls is nothing new. But the eclipse of Fine Gael by the Labour Party is causing deep unease, as is the renewed buoyancy of Fianna Fáil. The public’s choice of Eamon Gilmore as a potential coalition taoiseach over Mr Kenny is a matter of deep disquiet which could damage the prospects of the alternative coalition.
And all of these party considerations are exactly what the country does not need at a time when consensus is needed.